On Saturday, Politico's James Arkin reported that Republican senators facing re-election in 2020 are being warned by party strategist that they must vote in lockstep to protect Trump — or they will be thrown out of office.
"GOP strategists see little political upside for any Republican senator to consider breaking with the president on the issue given that they would inevitably see a massive drop-off in support among their base voters," wrote Arkin.
The problem is that even for senators in states where Trump is extremely unpopular, like Sens. Cory Gardner (R-CO) and Susan Collins (R-ME), a dropoff in support among Trump voters would be disastrous, and they could not expect to gain enough votes from moderates and independents to make up for those lost.
Scott Jennings, who advises Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), agreed with this assessment, saying, "You have a hell of a lot to lose. If you look at Republicans in any state — a big Trump state or not — and you're a Republican office holder, you have a heck of a lot to lose by breaking with the president."
So far, there is no indication any Republican is going to break ranks and vote to convict Trump in the Senate, where 67 votes are necessary to remove him from office. Gardner has blasted the House impeachment proceedings as a "total circus," and while Collins and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) have both criticized McConnell's promise that he will not act as an impartial juror, neither has committed to supporting a full slate of witnesses to testify at the trial.
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