On Thursday, President Donald Trump’s campaign manager Brad Parscale posted a poll that was meant to warn Democrats off of their impeachment efforts, by showing how it was hurting their prospects in a competitive House race.
Specifically, the “confidential” poll showed freshman Rep. Kendra Horn (R-OK) down seven points against a generic Republican, and impeachment opposed 52 percent to 45 percent:
Nancy Pelosi is marching members of her caucus off the plank and into the abyss.
Impeachment is killing her freshman members and polling proves it.
Here’s data on Rep. Kendra Horn (OK-5).
More to come on other members soon.
Say goodbye to your majority, Nancy! pic.twitter.com/5hsvB1phIb
— Brad Parscale (@parscale) December 5, 2019
Unfortunately for Parscale, the poll — which did not even bother to match Horn against a named challenger — did not exactly send the message Parscale was intending.
Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District, which includes most of Oklahoma City and its suburbs, elected Trump by 14 points, implying that at least some of the people who voted for Trump there may now support impeachment. Moreover, the district is one of the reddest that flipped to the Democratic Party in 2018 — most pundits didn’t even view it as particularly competitive — so if Horn is still competitive against a generic Republican, it bodes poorly for GOP hopes of an impeachment-fueled backlash giving them back the House.
Many commenters on social media didn’t hesitate to point this out to Parscale:
If you are telling Dem strategists that OK-05 (Trump+14, Romney+19) is 45% pro-impeach, I’m guessing they are going to feel pretty darn good about holding the majority. https://t.co/T6Yx76Uv9F
— Mike DeBonis (@mikedebonis) December 5, 2019
That district went +14 Trump and you’re saying 45% now want him impeached? Wow!!
— Molly Knight (@molly_knight) December 5, 2019
And this is from a Republican Polling Outfit that was interviewed by the Special Counsel’s Office.
— EJL 🗽 (@EJL1984) December 5, 2019
Actually, if that’s OK 5, you’re in terrible trouble. Also if you want some real swing voter polling on impeachment, I ran one in swing districts in VA a few weeks ago: 55% support of the impeachment inquiry among those likely voters.
— Rachel “The Doc” Bitecofer 📈🔭🗿💪 (@RachelBitecofer) December 5, 2019
If you extrapolate these numbers out, it means only about 5-7 House Dems are really threatened by impeachment.
And that Senate Rs up for reelection have a lot to worry about, when the trial moves to the upper chamber. https://t.co/QjKaWiARwW
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) December 5, 2019
this memorandum was supposed to be confidential, it says so right at the top, dummy
— Jesse Spector (@jessespector) December 5, 2019