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Trump’s next 100 days will dictate whether he can be re-elected or not — here’s why

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According to CNN pollster-in-residence Harry Enten, Donald Trump’s next 100 days — which could include an impeachment trial in the Senate — will hold the key to whether he will remain president in 2020.

As Eten explains in a column for CNN, “His [Trump’s] approval rating has been consistently low during his first term. Yet his supporters could always point out that approval ratings before an election year have not historically been correlated with reelection success. But by mid-March of an election year, approval ratings, though, become more predictive. Presidents with low approval ratings in mid-March of an election year tend to lose, while those with strong approval ratings tend to win in blowouts and those with middling approval ratings usually win by small margins.”

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Noting that Trump currently has an approval rating in the low 40’s, Enten points out, “Since World War II, two presidents have had an approval rating at or below 45% in mid-March of an election year. George H.W. Bush had an approval rating at 39%, while Jimmy Carter’s was at 45% and falling fast. Both of them went on to lose reelection by greater than 5 points.”

“It’s certainly within the margin of error that Trump wins reelection even if his approval rating stays where it is by mid-March of next year,” he wrote, adding, “So what happens if Trump’s approval rating is the same in 100 days as it is now and the economy grows at the same rate it currently is through the election? Based on history, Trump would be forecasted to lose by a few points.”

Adding that, “It would be a race within the margin of error,” Enten continued. “Still, you can clearly see how history points to an uphill climb for Trump. Combine that with the fact that his approval ratings have been consistently low, and there’s no reason to believe the underlying political environment will change dramatically by Election Day if things hold over the next 100 days.”

The pollster does add the caveat, that Trump’s election prospects — providing he is not ousted by a GOP-controlled Senate after an impeachment trial — also depends on who his opponent is in the 2020 election.

“Who that is will ultimately help to determine whether Trump is able to beat his poor fundamentals,” he concluded.

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‘Emasculated’ Virginia gun nuts mocked for ‘purchasing toys, dressing up in costumes, and playing fantasy games’

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Gun owners in Virginia descended upon the capitol of Richmond on Monday to protest against proposed new firearms restrictions that include universal background checks and limits on the number of handguns that can be purchased over the span of a month.

Many of the rally goers came dressed in military camouflage, while others wore black face-covering masks that looked like the sort of garb warn by Hezbollah militants. Many of them walked around openly carrying their AR-15-style rifles and pledged to resist any attempts to restrict their access to deadly weapons.

However, the protesters inspired a good deal of mockery for what critics described as an elaborate cosplay that's more on par with something you'd expect to see at a Star Trek convention rather than at a serious political rally.

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Longtime conservative scorches GOP senators over threat to treat Trump impeachment oath like a ‘joke’

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In a highly critical column for the conservative Bulwark, longtime Republican stalwart Bill Kristol lashed out at GOP senators who he believes are just going through the motions of signing an oath to be fair and impartial in the impeachment trial of Donald Trump while planning to exonerate the president at the earliest possible chance.

In a column titled, "Is the Oath a Joke?" the editor-at-large for the Bulwark, along with University of Texas professor Jeffrey Tulis, questioned whether GOP lawmakers really believe in all the things they profess to believe in.

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Trump’s ‘shocking and deeply disturbing’ foreign conflicts of interest detailed in new report

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Even though President Donald Trump has been impeached for his efforts to shake down the Ukrainian government to investigate his political opponents, Democrats in Congress are still working on uncovering information about Trump's unprecedented conflicts of interests with foreign governments.

A new report from Politico shows just how deep Trump's foreign conflicts of interest go, and they show multiple potential violations of the Constitution's so-called emoluments clause that bars the president from taking payments from foreign governments.

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