According to a strategy paper compiled by former President Bill Clinton's highly regarded political director, Donald Trump has an uphill battle to stay in the Oval Office after the coronavirus pandemic and associated fall-out upended his campaign's re-election plans.
As reported by Axios, Doug Sosnik, "whose 'big thinks' are eagerly awaited by political insiders and activists alike" has surveyed the 2020 election landscape as does not see any upside for the president despite his ability to fire up his rabid base.
As Sosnik sees it, voters will be turning out in November for what he calls the "coronavirus election" which will be a referendum on the president's response to the pandemic that may still be ongoing and has already led to close to over 70,000 America deaths.
Noting that country is already deeply divided along partisan lines, Sosnik said "Trump’s campaign will try mightily to make the election about a choice between him and Joe Biden. But given the political landscape, it will likely come down to a referendum on Trump's presidency."
Sosnik explains that there are three factors that are working against Trump's favor: " 1) Sen. Bernie Sanders, the presumed nominee in back then, won't be his opponent ... 2) Trump’s failure to prepare for and manage the pandemic ... 3) The resulting economic crater."
Add to that, Trump is faltering badly in the key battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
"Early polls of registered voters in those states show Biden performing very well against Trump," the report states. "Midwestern states, Michigan and Pennsylvania in particular, have been really hard hit by the crisis."
"Given the critical role that Trump’s job approval and the economy will play, there's a real question whether the campaign will affect the arc of the race in a significant way," Axios reports Sosnik explains, "Past presidential re-election campaign outcomes, and extensive academic research, suggest that the answer is not much."
In summary, the political analyst concluded, "Trump based his entire presidency on appealing to his base, focusing on the strength of the economy — which has now collapsed."
You can read more here including the complete document with supporting graphs.