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Trump faces ‘nearly insurmountable’ odds of being reelected thanks to COVID-19 recession: forecasting model

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President Donald Trump responds to a question about Jussie Smollett (Screen cap).

The recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has put a major dent in President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2020 election, according to an influential election forecasting model.

NBC News reports that Oxford Economics, which has a strong track record of forecasting presidential elections, now sees Trump as all but certain to lose the popular vote this fall.

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“An unemployment rate above its global financial crisis peak, household income nearly 6% below its pre-virus levels, and transitory deflation will make the economy a nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November,” the firm writes in explaining its latest forecast.

How dire is the situation for the president? The Oxford model projects Trump will receive just 35 percent of the vote this fall, and that it would “take nothing short of an economic miracle” for him to overcome that.

That said, no major party nominee has ever received just 35 percent of the vote, as even Herbert Hoover in 1932 managed to get 40 percent of the popular vote in the middle of the Great Depression.

George H.W. Bush, who lost the 1992 election, got only 37 percent of the popular vote, but that was with third-party challenger Ross Perot taking away millions of potential votes from both him and Democratic challenger Bill Clinton.


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2020 Election

‘Truly grotesque’: On way out the door, Trump prioritizes bringing back executions by firing squad and electrocution

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Among the slew of potentially destructive policy changes the Trump administration is rushing to implement on its way out of power is a rule that would authorize the return of electrocutions and firing squads for federal executions, an effort critics slammed as a twisted priority amid deadly public health and economic crises.

ProPublica reported Wednesday that the rule, first published in the Federal Register by the U.S. Justice Department in August, "has raced through the process with little notice but unusual speed—and deadly consequences."

"This rule could reintroduce firing squads and electrocutions for federal executions, giving the government more options for administering capital punishment as drugs used in lethal injections become unavailable," ProPublica noted. "The Justice Department surfaced the proposal in August and accepted public comments for only 30 days, instead of the usual 60. The rule cleared White House review on Nov. 6, meaning it could be finalized any day."

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2020 Election

Americans ‘won’t stand’ for election results not being honored: Biden

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US President-elect Joe Biden said Wednesday that Americans "won't stand" for the results of the November 3 election not being honored.

"Our democracy was tested this year," Biden said in a Thanksgiving Day address in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware. "And what we learned is this: The people of this nation are up to the task.

"In America, we have full and fair and free elections, and then we honor the results," he said. "The people of this nation and the laws of the land won't stand for anything else."

Biden did not mention Donald Trump by name but he was clearly referring to the president's refusal to accept the results of the election.

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2020 Election

The strange truth about our Trump addiction

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Are we addicted to Donald Trump? It's a question that's haunting journalists and political commentators, most of whom hate Trump but cannot deny that his name drives traffic and ratings. Even though Trump lost the election and Joe Biden will be the next president, Trump continues to be the big attention draw for political websites and cable news networks.

Part of that is completely understandable. Trump is still big news. He literally spent the past few weeks attempting a coup. While he failed, that doesn't change the history-making fact that he even tried, or that he got so much support. Certainly Biden, whose main activity is finding boring-but-competent people to staff his administration, can't compete with that, and there's no real indication that he wants to. (Unlike Trump, Biden views governing as a job and not just an opportunity to get attention.)

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