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Trump faces ‘nearly insurmountable’ odds of being reelected thanks to COVID-19 recession: forecasting model

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The recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has put a major dent in President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2020 election, according to an influential election forecasting model.

NBC News reports that Oxford Economics, which has a strong track record of forecasting presidential elections, now sees Trump as all but certain to lose the popular vote this fall.

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“An unemployment rate above its global financial crisis peak, household income nearly 6% below its pre-virus levels, and transitory deflation will make the economy a nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November,” the firm writes in explaining its latest forecast.

How dire is the situation for the president? The Oxford model projects Trump will receive just 35 percent of the vote this fall, and that it would “take nothing short of an economic miracle” for him to overcome that.

That said, no major party nominee has ever received just 35 percent of the vote, as even Herbert Hoover in 1932 managed to get 40 percent of the popular vote in the middle of the Great Depression.

George H.W. Bush, who lost the 1992 election, got only 37 percent of the popular vote, but that was with third-party challenger Ross Perot taking away millions of potential votes from both him and Democratic challenger Bill Clinton.


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2020 Election

Eric Trump predicts his dad will win re-election: ‘The polls are looking great — you see it every day’

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One of President Donald Trump's children appeared on Fox News on Thursday to predict that his father would win re-election in November.

"Well listen, I think, um, I think we're looking really good," Eric Trump told Sean Hannity.

"The polls are looking great -- you see it every single day," Trump claimed. "The enthusiasm is tremendous."

"We're going to win," he predicted. "My father is going to win this election."

The prediction was offered the same day that NBC News released their first battleground map, showing Joe Biden on pace to win 334 Electoral College votes, Trump set to win 125 Electoral Votes, with 79 too close to call.

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2020 Election

Susan Rice divested herself of Netflix stock options — could it be a sign she is Biden’s VP pick?

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Former National Security Advisor Susan Rice exercised her Netflix stock options on Tuesday.

Rice, who was appointed to the streaming video company's board of directors in 2018, filed paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission showing that she sold about $300,000 in the transactions.

The financial move occurred as former Vice President is close to announcing his choice of running mate, Rice is considered a leading contender for the position.

Other VP contenders reportedly include Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), Rep. Karen Bass (D-CA), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), Rep. Val Demmings (D-FL), Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) and Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-MN).

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2020 Election

The Lincoln Project trolls Trump with new video on America’s rising COVID-19 death toll

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President Donald Trump's bungled response to the coronavirus pandemic is increasingly becoming a major campaign issue in the 2020 election.

On Tuesday, Trump taunted his detractors by reposting a video imagining him running for re-election for over 100 years, in violation of the constitution as currently written.

pic.twitter.com/JDS4zUXXJG

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 4, 2020

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