On Wednesday, writing for The Washington Post, columnist Henry Olsen said the electoral signs are getting grimmer for the GOP by the day — for their prospects of maintaining control of the Senate, but also of their seats further down the ballot.
“Elections in both the House and Senate are increasingly syncing with broader presidential races,” wrote Olsen. “In 2016, every Senate race was won by the same party that won that state in the presidential contest. In 2018, House races largely correlated with Trump’s approval rating, with even the most popular GOP incumbents unable to run more than a few points ahead of the president. Polls for Senate races this year show the same trend, with Republican incumbents’ totals closely matched with Trump’s. This spells disaster for the party.”
“Public polls show incumbent Senate Republicans trailing in five states: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina,” said Olsen, noting that polls are also close in Georgia. And “it could get even worse. A University of Montana poll conducted last month shows Democratic challenger Steve Bullock ahead of Republican incumbent Steve Daines 47 percent to 43 percent, even as Trump is winning the state with 52 percent support.” In a nightmare scenario for the GOP, he argued, there are even signs they could lose Kansas and Alaska. And Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) appears to know the risk.
But the Senate is not all that is at stake for the GOP, wrote Olsen.
“Republicans also look set to lose House seats if trends don’t improve,” he wrote. “Throughout 2020, Democrats have led the national generic ballot, which asks respondents whose party’s House candidate they would support … Losing this November by 10 points or more would almost guarantee further GOP House losses, entrenching Democratic rule in the House even further.”
And then there are the state legislative contests, which will decide redistricting for a decade. “Another Democratic landslide could hand them control of a number of key legislative chambers, the most important being the Texas State House. Republicans in Austin hold an 83-to-67 advantage, but they lost 12 seats in 2018, and Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke won nine districts currently represented by Republicans. If Democrats were to win control, it would eliminate Republican control over redistricting in a state that is expected to send 39 members to the House after the post-census reapportionment.”
“Things could get better. Republicans would hold many seats at all levels if Trump were to lose by only six points rather than 11 or more,” added Olsen. “Right now, though, for Republicans nationwide, that feels a lot like holding the deck chairs on the Titanic.”
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Maddow reveals the ‘shocking sign’ the White House may be betting Trump is going to lose in 2020
MSNBC anchor Rachel Maddow returned from vacation to host the Tuesday evening edition of her MSNBC show.
Maddow noted, "in 91 days we all get to decide if the guy who's currently in charge of how we're responding to this epidemic should stay in the job for four more years or if Democratic candidate Joe Biden would do better at this."
"It's honestly hard to know what it will be like for a president to stand for re-election with 200,000 dead Americans as a key metric from his first term, while he asks for a second term, but we're going to talk tonight about how some of that is going to work and some of what we can see coming down the pike," she explained. "And a lot of it is very worrying, in terms of the institutions of our democracy and what we count on to keep us a constitutional republic."
GOP is failing tests of patriotism and morality by backing ‘blithering idiot’ Trump: Lincoln Project member
The former chief strategist for Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign blasted President Donald Trump during a Tuesday appearance on MSNBC's "All In."
Stuart Stevens, a member of The Lincoln Project, is author of the new book It Was All a Lie: How the Republican Party Became Donald Trump.
Host Chris Hayes played a clip of Trump's interview with Axios White House correspondent Jonathan Swan.
"I'm curious what your thinking was watching that interview," Hayes said.
"It's still just unbelievable that this man is president of the United States," Stevens replied. "He's a guy that really you wouldn't want to sit next to on a long plane flight. Just across the board, he's an idiot."
Here’s what white women in a swing county of a swing state think of Donald Trump
Originally published by The 19th
It is no secret to the campaigns of Joe Biden and Donald Trump that the road to the White House runs through places like Michigan’s Macomb County.
It is a swing county in one of a trio of recently reliably Democratic states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin — that shocked Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign by breaking for Trump after backing Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.
The county, a suburban and exurban area north of Detroit, is the state’s third most populous. Eighty percent of its residents are White. Roughly a quarter of adults have college degrees. The median household income in 2018 was about $60,000. Voters there cast ballots at higher rates than the country overall. It is a so-called bellwether that backed the candidate elected president all but three times in the past 50 years.