President Donald Trump has been sinking in the polls for weeks, as a combination of a deadly pandemic, freefalling economy, and nationwide racial unrest has started to undermine even some of his steadfast supporters' confidence in his ability to lead the nation. But for a long time, the financial industry and betting markets at least were more bullish on the president's ability to pull off another win.
Not anymore, however. According to Axios, investors' money is increasingly on former Vice President Joe Biden to beat the president.
"Betting markets have turned decisively toward an expected victory for Joe Biden in November — and asset managers at major investment banks are preparing for not only a Biden win, but potentially a Democratic sweep of the Senate and House too," reported Dion Rabouin. "The shift is the latest indicator of how quickly the political and business worlds have aligned in the view that Trump is unlikely to win a second term as COVID-19 infection numbers have spiked again and the economy looks to be stalling."
Moreover, the report said, "A Citigroup poll of 140 fund managers released last week found that 62% expect a Biden win, compared to 70% who expected a Trump victory in the same survey in December." And Kace Capital Advisors director Kenny Polcari said that among investors, "Talk of a Democratic sweep [is] now common."
The shift is yet another reshaping of the conventional wisdom that the president could fight his way to victory with an unshakable base of support and structural advantages in the electoral system. Even Republicans are now bracing for a Trump wipeout, with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) reportedly considering advising his colleagues to distance themselves from the president.