In a column for New York magazine, Democratic strategist Ed Kilgore claimed that a "Blue Wave" election in 2020, like the one that switched the balance of power in the House to the Democrats, could have a far-reaching impact on congressional representation in elections to come.
In 2018, distaste for Donald Trump -- who was not on the ballot -- led voters to take out their wrath on Republican lawmakers, handing Democrats a net gain of 40 seats in the House and making Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) the House Speaker.
A similar influx of voters turning out to deny Trump a second term in November could have a down-ticket impact that would help Democrats with redistricting -- turning gerrymandered districts into Democratic strongholds.
"While most of the focus ahead of the 2020 elections is on the presidential contest and the Democratic drive to regain control of the U.S. Senate, the wave that seems to be building up for the Donkey Party could equal 2018’s and put Democrats in a far better position in the next round of redistricting than seemed possible less than a year ago," Kilgore wrote before adding that Democrats, " ...are on track to consolidate and perhaps expand their control of the House, which could be crucial if Joe Biden becomes president and the usual midterm House losses for the party controlling the White House occur in 2022."
According to the strategist, Democrats are now focusing on dislodging, "current Republican majorities in the Minnesota state Senate; the state Houses in Texas, Michigan, and Iowa; and one or both chambers in Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania," which would allow them to make changes that benefit their own party.
More importantly, he points out, the time is ripe because Congress is about to undergo a reapportionment.
"Among these targets, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Texas are expected to gain seats in the reapportionment of the U.S. House after the Census is complete, while Michigan and Pennsylvania are expected to lose seats," he wrote before predicting, "These are the states where control of redistricting can have the biggest partisan impact."
"If Democrats can pull off an election cycle in which they gain the White House and the Senate; consolidate their hold on the House; and gain the upper hand in redistricting in a number of states with large congressional delegations, that will represent a good year’s work," he suggested. "And as they learned ten years ago, being on the downside of this sort of election can create some long-term challenges for the losers."
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