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Top election forecaster finally releases its 2020 projection — and it will bring back memories of 2016

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Composite image of Donald Trump and Joe Biden (screengrabs)

Polling expert Nate Silver and his team at FiveThirtyEight have released their highly anticipated 2020 election forecast that shows former Vice President Joe Biden favored over President Donald Trump — but not overwhelmingly so.

In total, the forecast shows that Biden currently has a 71 percent chance of winning the election, whereas Trump’s chances are at 29 percent.

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While this may sound good for Biden, it’s also roughly where former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton stood on election day in 2016, meaning yet another upset is well within the range of possibility.

“While it’s clear that Biden is comfortably ahead of Trump right now — nationally and in most battleground states — the forecast shows Trump with a meaningful chance of winning because there’s still plenty of time for the race to tighten,” the forecast states.

The forecast at the moment also projects Wisconsin as the “tipping point” state where, if Biden manages to win it, he will very likely win the presidency. Other states in the tipping point range include Arizona, Florida, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania.

Check out the entire forecast here.


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2020 Election

Trump has a serious problem with women voters — even in red states

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In the past, Texas and Georgia were reliably Republican in presidential elections. But recent polls show that in the 2020 presidential election, Democratic nominee Joe Biden is surprisingly competitive in those light red states — and New York Times reporters Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin, analyzing some recent polling in an article published on September 24, cite female voters as a key reason.

According to newly released New York Times/Siena polls, Trump is leading Biden by 3% in Texas — while Trump and Biden are in a dead heat in Georgia. In Iowa, the Times and Siena found that Biden is ahead by 3%. The last Democratic presidential nominee to win Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976; the last Democratic presidential nominee to win Georgia was Bill Clinton in 1992.

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2020 Election

CNN presents damning list of all the times Trump has refused to accept election results

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President Donald Trump triggered outrage at his Wednesday press briefing for refusing to commit to a peaceful transition of power.

But his attitude is nothing new, wrote Kevin Liptak for CNN, who listed all the times in the last few months Trump has expressed similar sentiments.

On July 19, for instance, Trump told Fox News Sunday, "I'm not going to just say 'yes'" when asked if he'll accept the election results. On July 30, he tweeted that mail ballots are "INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT" and suggested "Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote." On August 17 at a rally, he suggested staying in office beyond two terms, saying "we'll go for another four years because they spied on my campaign. We should get a redo of four years." Three days later, at another rally, he said of Democrats, "they're trying to steal the election, and everybody knows that. Because the only way they're going to win is by a rigged election."

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2020 Election

McConnell’s re-election campaign slapped with FEC flag over suspected accounting errors

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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) re-election campaign is facing scrutiny from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and he is now being required to answer questions regarding suspected accounting errors.

The letter and a 60-page report, written by FEC campaign analyst Susan Worthington to McConnell’s Senate Committee, were sent to McConnell’s campaign treasurer, Larry J. Steinberg on Monday. The committee pointed out “Apparent Excessive, Prohibited, and Impermissible Contributions” regarding donations recorded in McConnell’s July quarterly report that suggests multiple contributions may have exceeded the legal limits.

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