On Saturday, writing for CNN, election forecaster Harry Enten poured cold water on President Donald Trumps' frequent boasts that he has a "silent majority" of voters he can count on for a November victory — saying that it's more like a "loud minority."
"There is obviously a chance Trump will eventually reach 50% against Biden," said Enten. "But if this streak continues for Trump, he will be the first president to never reach 50% in any live interview poll in either his first successful campaign for president, approval rating or his reelection bid."
That would be essentially unprecedented, wrote Enten.
"There's simply no record of any president failing to reach at least 50% once in their approval rating. The majority of presidents actually average at least 50% approval during their first term," wrote Enten. "No president I know of who ran for another term didn't hit at least 50% in one poll at some point against their opponent. This includes even the losers like Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in early 1992 polls against Bill Clinton."
The president has repeatedly claimed that the polls are somehow missing Trump voters who are ashamed to admit their support. The campaign has cited as evidence the fact that Trump has performed slightly better in polls conducted online than through live caller interviews — although it's actually more complicated than that.
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