According to CNN polling expert Harry Enten, Donald Trump should not expect wins in three pivotal Rust Belt states to help him stay in the Oval Office.
Reporting on yet another poll showing the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden beating the president, Enten claimed it spells trouble for the Trump 2020 campaign.
Pointing out that new Franklin & Marshall College poll shows Biden is leading Trump 50 percent to 41 percent in Pennsylvania, the polling expert added that a recent Fox News poll showed an 11 point spread favoring the former vice president in the same state.
“Trump won the 2016 election in large part because he was able to break through the big ‘blue’ wall in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He did so on the backs of White voters, and in particular White voters without a college degree. This led to those infamous memes of reporters seeking out voters in diners across America,” he wrote before adding, “But today, Biden leads Trump in these Great Lake (or Rust Belt) battlegrounds because he’s eating into Trump’s margins among those very groups. These gains have big implications for the electoral college because they suggest Biden’s easiest path to victory may be through these three states.”
According to Enten, no early poll is carved in stone and the political tide can and will change, but the large spread in the polls should worry the president because, “[It] is clear enough that it’s well outside the range of any statistical anomaly.”
As he notes:
- Michigan: Trump leads by an average of 3 points among White voters. Four years ago, Trump won amongst these voters by 15 points.
- Pennsylvania: Biden is ahead by 3 points with White voters. In 2016, Trump won them by 15 points.
- Wisconsin: Biden’s up by 6 points with White voters. Last election, Trump took them by 7 points.
Writing, “Not surprisingly, these three states have swung harder in Biden’s direction than the average of national polls,” he pointed out, “That’s a big deal because Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin combined have 46 electoral votes. If you add those to the 232 in states Clinton won in 2016, you get to 278 electoral votes. Biden wouldn’t need to win over any other Trump won states in order to win the election.”
You can read more analysis here.
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