Quantcast
Connect with us

Trump’s Rust Belt firewall is falling apart, putting his re-election in doubt: CNN pollster

Published

on

According to CNN polling expert Harry Enten, Donald Trump should not expect wins in three pivotal Rust Belt states to help him stay in the Oval Office.

Reporting on yet another poll showing the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden beating the president, Enten claimed it spells trouble for the Trump 2020 campaign.

Pointing out that new Franklin & Marshall College poll shows Biden is leading Trump 50 percent to 41 percent in Pennsylvania, the polling expert added that a recent Fox News poll showed an 11 point spread favoring the former vice president in the same state.

ADVERTISEMENT

“Trump won the 2016 election in large part because he was able to break through the big ‘blue’ wall in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He did so on the backs of White voters, and in particular White voters without a college degree. This led to those infamous memes of reporters seeking out voters in diners across America,” he wrote before adding, “But today, Biden leads Trump in these Great Lake (or Rust Belt) battlegrounds because he’s eating into Trump’s margins among those very groups. These gains have big implications for the electoral college because they suggest Biden’s easiest path to victory may be through these three states.”

According to Enten, no early poll is carved in stone and the political tide can and will change, but the large spread in the polls should worry the president because, “[It] is clear enough that it’s well outside the range of any statistical anomaly.”

As he notes:

  • Michigan: Trump leads by an average of 3 points among White voters. Four years ago, Trump won amongst these voters by 15 points.
  • Pennsylvania: Biden is ahead by 3 points with White voters. In 2016, Trump won them by 15 points.
  • Wisconsin: Biden’s up by 6 points with White voters. Last election, Trump took them by 7 points.

Writing, “Not surprisingly, these three states have swung harder in Biden’s direction than the average of national polls,” he pointed out, “That’s a big deal because Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin combined have 46 electoral votes. If you add those to the 232 in states Clinton won in 2016, you get to 278 electoral votes. Biden wouldn’t need to win over any other Trump won states in order to win the election.”

You can read more analysis here.

ADVERTISEMENT

 


Report typos and corrections to: [email protected].
READ COMMENTS - JOIN THE DISCUSSION
Continue Reading

2020 Election

‘This is a big deal’: Iowa Gov. ends voting ban for people with felony convictions

Published

on

The new executive order means there is now no U.S. state categorically banning people with former convictions from voting.

In a development heralded as "a historic sea change," Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds signed an executive order on Wednesday overturning the state's policy of permanently banning those with felony convictions from voting.

"Today we take a significant step forward in acknowledging the importance of redemption, second chances, and the need to address inequalities in our justice system," said Reynolds, a Republican, whose order (pdf) is expected to restore voting rights to roughly 40,000 people.

Continue Reading

2020 Election

‘So many bootlicking hacks’: Trump campaign ignites mockery with ‘hilarious’ list of potential debate moderators

Published

on

Trump's personal attorney Rudy Giuliani on Wednesday asked the Commission on Presidential Debates to move up the last presidential debate to the first week in September, according to Axios. In his letter to the commission, he also included a list of suggested moderators.

The list included several mainstream journalists, such as Norah O'Donnell of CBS News and David Muir of ABC News. But it also contained a number of right-wing pundits, like Hugh Hewitt.

Continue Reading
 

2020 Election

Trump’s unhinged fans get even more detached from reality as his chances fade

Published

on

A pandemic is spiraling out of control and Donald Trump's reaction is to roll his eyes and say, "It is what it is." Unsurprisingly, polling data shows that his Democratic opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden, is pulling ahead, not just in national polls, but in a number of battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida, none of which Trump can afford to lose. After all, the incumbent has nothing real to run on. The economy is the worst it's been since the Great Depression of the 1930s, Americans are losing health insurance by the millions, and Republicans are responding by trying to shortchange unemployment benefits for the millions of people who've lost their jobs.

Continue Reading
 
 
You need honest news coverage. Help us deliver it. Join Raw Story Investigates for $1. Go ad-free.
close-image