Polling shows that President Donald Trump has consistently trailed former Democratic rival Joe Biden in the critical state of Arizona, and Cook Political Report elections analyst Amy Walter thinks she knows why.
In her latest analysis of polling in Arizona, Walter notes that Trump's support from Republicans in the state is not nearly as strong as in other Sun Belt swing states such as Florida.
"Call it the revenge of former Arizona GOP Sens. Jeff Flake and the late John McCain, two of the president's most vocal critics," Walter writes. "Only 73 percent of Arizona Republicans say they are definitely voting for Trump, with 9 percent saying they are probably or definitely voting for Joe Biden."
She also finds that the president is doing worse among Latino voters in Arizona than he is with Latinos in Florida, where a large population of conservative Cuban Americans has boosted his numbers.
"The new data in this poll, combined with other recent polling in the state, all find Arizona slipping away from Trump," she concludes. "We are moving it from Toss Up to Lean Democrat."