According to CNN polling analyst Harry Enten, the good news for Donald Trump is that he is picking up more Republican voters than he did in 2016 as the November election looms.
Now for the bad news: Trump is also driving up — at a greater rate — Democratic voters who will be turning out for former Vice President Joe Biden on November 3rd while also driving away many of the independent voters who helped him win in 2016.
Using a new Quinnipiac University national poll that shows Biden with a 52% to 42% lead over Trump nationally, Enten said the devil is in the details where Trump’s inability — or refusal — to reach out beyond his rabid base is illustrated by how voters across the spectrum are making their intentions known.
As Enten explained, “The problem for Trump is that in his efforts to appease the base, he has lost his ability to appeal to those outside of it. If Trump ends up losing, it’ll be because his gains with the Republican base have not been offset by his losses among other voters.”
As the analyst points out, Trump has increased his lead with Republicans 3 points compared to 2106 when he ran against Hillary Clinton, which would be encouraging if it weren’t for the fact that independents are fleeing Trump in large numbers.
“He [Trump] was up 7 points with independents in Quinnipiac’s poll four years ago. Today, Trump’s down with independents by 8 points. Trump’s deficit among Democrats has ballooned from 84 points to 94 points in Quinnipiac’s polling,” he wrote before adding, “These are bad trades for Trump given there are more Democrats and independents than there are Republicans in the electorate.”
Taken together, Trump should be pursuing expanding his base if he was any hope of winning in November, but as Enten points out — noting the president’s recent shenanigans including rushing to fill Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat with the exceedingly conservative Amy Coney Barrett: “If Trump wants to make a comeback in 2020, chances are he’ll have to retake some of the ground he’s lost outside of his base. Based on his actions this far into the campaign, Trump seemingly has no interest in doing that.”
You can read more details here.
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