Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is in legitimate jeopardy of losing his seat to upstart Democratic candidate Jamie Harrison.
The Cook Political Report, which is one of America's top elections forecasting operations, has shifted Graham's race from being a "Lean Republican" to being a "Toss Up."
Less than two months ago, Cook Political had Graham's seat as a "likely" Republican win, which shows just how much ground Harrison has made up in the closing weeks of the campaign.
As the latest Cook Political analysis shows, Harrison has absolutely dominated Graham in terms of advertising, as he and his allied political action committees have spent $68 million on ads compared to just $37 million spent by Graham and his allied PACs.
"During the last full week of September, Harrison spent just over $6 million on TV," writes Cook Political analyst Jessica Taylor. "Last week, that amount rose to over $7.5 million. This week Harrison’s spending is at just over $8 million so far — only a fraction of what the incumbent is spending, even when aided by outside groups."
Even aside from the spending gap, polling finds that voters even in a deep-red state like South Carolina like Harrison and don't particularly care for Graham.
"Harrison has a net favorable rating of +13 (48% fav/35% unfav), and 59% of voters say Harrison cares about average people (a stunning +34 margin) — compared to just 44% who say the same thing about Graham (for a -6 margin)," writes Taylor.
Cook Political isn't the only major forecaster to find that Graham is in trouble, as the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics claimed last month that Graham “is in greater danger of an upset” than he was just weeks ago, which led to a ratings change in Graham’s race against Harrison from “likely R” to “leans R.”