According to pollsters and Republican campaign consultants, the chances that Donald Trump will be re-elected in less than 30 days are dwindling away with polls showing steady erosion of support and voters the president had been counting on fleeing his camp for Democratic challenger Joe Biden.
As one longtime Republican campaign consultant put it, the presidency is "Biden's to lose."
According to a report from Bloomberg, Trump is bleeding support from seniors, women and the suburbs if polling is to be believed, with his handling of the coronavirus pandemic that has claimed over 210,000 lives in the U.S.
Adding to Trump's woes is the fact that he was infected with COVID-19 which not only knocked him off the campaign trail but brought home the seriousness of the health crisis -- even to some of his supporters.
Bloomberg reports, "Trump now trails Biden by an average of 9.7 percentage points nationally, and by about 5 to 7 points in key battleground states, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polling. With 25 days left, it’s not clear how Trump can make up lost ground," before adding, "The challenge got even harder Thursday when Trump rejected the idea of a virtual debate with Biden next week, erasing one of his few remaining opportunities to change the trajectory of the race."
According to conservative pollster Frank Luntz, the president's refusal to do the debates under the new rules could deal a deathblow to his campaign.
“I don’t see how Donald Trump catches Joe Biden without having two debates,” Luntz admitted “Without that debate, I can’t do the math to take him to where he needs to be if he expects to win this election.”
For his part, Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh pushed back at reports of Trump's declining fortunes, telling Bloomberg, “The news media should get out of the business of predicting the future because they’re really bad at it. We know where the president stands in the states that will decide this election and he remains strong.”
Ed Rogers, a veteran GOP strategist and adviser to Ronald Reagan begs to differ, telling Blomberg: “If Trump runs a good campaign from here on out and Biden runs a good campaign from here on out, it probably looks like Biden’s going to win.”
Republican pollster Whit Ayers claimed Trump's last debate did little to change the election dynamic, admitting, "When one candidate has a bad debate, and few candidates have had as bad a debate as Donald Trump did last Tuesday, there’s a temporary bump for the opponent and then things settle back down into the more normal margin. But the normal margin in this race has been 7-8 points, which is still a very substantial deficit.”
Even more concerning for Trump is the fact that Wall Street investors don't seem to have a problem with him losing even though he handed them a massive tax break.
“What we’re seeing from investors over the last several days is that a ‘blue wave’ might not be such a bad thing because it would give us more certainty with regard to policy, particularly with regard to the use of fiscal policy to help our economy at this point,' explained Goldman Sachs analyst Abby Joseph Cohen.
"The economy, which had long been an asset for Trump, also now weighs against him. The last two incumbents to lose re-election, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992, both were ousted following recessions. The 7.9% unemployment rate in September is higher than at the time of either of their losses," the V Bloomberg report states with Rogers saying of Republican voters, "They’re standing, I don’t think they’ve headed to the exits yet. But Trump’s had a bad 10 days.”
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