President Donald Trump has spent the better part of the past four years using the stock market as a measure of the strength of his economy, the job market and Americans' wages. Aside from the misguided assumption that the markets impact anything other than corporations, President-elect Joe Biden can boast a much more successful market than Trump had when he was elected in 2016.
The Washington Post reported Tuesday, as the Dow Jones hit a record 30,000, that using Trump's system of measurement, Biden seems to be doing a lot better.
“You’ve got to go by November 9th,” Trump said at a 2019 rally in New Hampshire, “because you know the markets have gone through the roof since November 9th. That’s the day after I won the election. So I won the election, the markets went up thousands of points. Things started happening.”
“Let me tell you,” he continued, “if for some reason I wouldn’t have won the election, these markets would have crashed, and that will happen even more so in 2020.”
He went on to predict outright doom the second Biden is elected.
“We have a headwind on the stock market, because on the chance that Biden got in, you will have a stock market go down like you wouldn’t believe, if he got in,” Trump said. “And I see the markets are projected to be up quite nicely today, and it was up yesterday very nicely because people are starting to think that I’m going to win.”
That's not what happened.
"From a week before the 2016 election to three weeks after — where we are now, relative to this year’s contest — the Dow Jones industrial average gained 1,084 points, and the S&P 500 was up 92.94 points," the Post explained. "From a week before Nov. 3 of this year until the markets closed Monday, the Dow was up almost twice as much — 2,128 — and the S&P up more than twice as much."
[caption id="attachment_1691429" align="aligncenter" width="405"] (Graphic via the Washington Post)[/caption]
After predicting a huge market crash, Trump bragged that the high markets were really because the COVID-19 vaccine was announced. If that was true, the markets probably would have stayed the same. Instead, they continued to climb. The day after Trump said that he would allow the Biden transition to move forward, the Dow hit the record 30,000 mark.
"Markets are complicated things, with assumptions often baked into prices and fluctuations occasionally emerging from unexpected prompts. They are a rough measure of an economy, which is itself a massive, complex thing — and a thing mostly but not entirely separated from individual decisions made by any president," the Post claimed.
In true Trump fashion, the success of the market will likely lead to Trump taking credit for the next several years, claiming that he paved the way for Biden. If the markets drop, then he'll blame Biden outright.