On Monday, Axios reported that JPMorgan is forecasting a second economic crash in response to the worsening COVID-19 conditions, with the economy shrinking up to an annualized 1 percent next quarter — the first bank to predict worsening economic conditions.
"This winter will be grim, and we believe the economy will contract again in 1Q," wrote JPMorgan economists in their forecast.
The second and third quarters, according to the same report, will see annualized growth of 4.5 and 6.5 percent, respectively.
There is little progress on a new stimulus package in Congress, making it unlikely that federal relief will come by the end of the year. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has signaled his intent to wind down federal tools to offer relief, a move widely criticized as targeted to worsen economic conditions for the incoming Biden administration.
Multiple vaccines are in the final stages of development, which could reduce economic pressure to keep nonessential businesses closed or restricted and increase public willingness to resume normal activity; however, these are not expected to be widely available for public use for several months.