On Monday, The Mercury News reported that President Donald Trump's continuous attacks on mail-in voting have put the already-defensive California Republican Party in a more precarious position than ever.
"According to figures collected by the electoral information firm, Political Data Inc., a surprising 54% of the 8.4 million ballots that have already been cast in California have come from registered Democrats. That’s 8 points above the party’s 46% share of the electorate," reported Ben Christopher. "Only 22% of mail-in ballots have come from Republicans, who make up 24% of all voters. That’s an inversion of the historic norm, where dedicated GOP voters tend to be the first ones to cast their ballots and Democrats are the ones more likely to wait until Election Day arrives."
All of this puts California Republicans at a bigger disadvantage. With low rates of mail-in voting, Republicans have to spend more money on voter turnout efforts, and are more vulnerable to late shifts in polling against them.
"At this point in the election season, Republican voters are typically outvoting their share of the electorate by some 10 percentage points ... Five days out, the party is underperforming by two points," said the report. "There are a number of possible explanations for the disproportionately blue shade of turnout, including high anti-Trump enthusiasm and concerns about mail delivery delays. But the persistent messaging from the president is certainly a factor. Republican voters have grown increasingly distrustful of voting by mail in line with the president’s pronouncements, surveys have shown."
