On Thursday, POLITICO reported that Senate Democrats are desperately trying to lock down Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Jon Tester (D-MT), their two most vulnerable red-state senators, to run for re-election — an action that could be critical as they face long odds to retain control of the Senate in 2024.
This comes shortly after Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), who ran the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee last term and guided Democrats through a tough cycle, agreed to stay on for another two years.
"Peters (D-Mich.) will have plenty of help in that task. Democratic senators confirmed in interviews that they’re leaning on their colleagues to help preserve their fragile majority," reported Burgess Everett and Marianne Levine. "And there’s a reason for the urgency. If both Tester and Manchin retire rather than face tough campaigns, it’s nearly impossible to imagine Democrats hanging onto those two seats — or their 51-49 Senate majority. 'Both of them are in challenging circumstances,' said Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). 'I think both can win, but they are the best candidates we have in their states.'"
"Manchin has infuriated liberals and drawn calls for a primary challenge from the left, an unrealistic prospect given that he’s the last Democrat standing in high office in West Virginia. As he put it, 'there’s no one on the Democratic side in West Virginia beating the door down' to run in his stead, or against him," said the report. "The centrist Democrat flirted with leaving the Hill in 2018 after a government shutdown and overall legislative malaise, though he ultimately decided to seek, and narrowly win, another six years in the Senate. And while Manchin is energized by the last two years of lawmaking under President Joe Biden, which frequently placed him at the center of negotiations, he’s feeling no pressure to move quickly."
The Republican nominee is essentially guaranteed to win both Montana and West Virginia in 2024. Democrats holding either seat will be impossible without the Senate nominee dramatically running ahead of the presidential ticket, something both Manchin and Tester have done in the past. These races will be difficult even with them running, particularly for Manchin — former President Donald Trump carried West Virginia by nearly 40 points. And a new Morning Consult poll released this week reveals that, while Manchin still runs well ahead of the partisanship of his state, 53 percent of West Virginia voters still disapprove of him, making him by that measure the second-most unpopular senator in the country after Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY).
Democrats have a challenging Senate map to defend in 2024. In addition to Manchin and Tester, they are also defending Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), the only person since 2012 to win an Ohio statewide race as a Democrat in a partisan election. They also must defend seats in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and potentially oust independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema in a three-way race in Arizona; meanwhile, the most competitive Republican-held Senate seats by presidential vote margin are Texas and Florida.
