“This is a pretty tough time, to be honest,” farmer Glenn Brunknow told NPR in April. “This is about as grim of time as I’ve seen for crop production. Nothing looks like it’s going to make money right now.”
If he wants to come out ahead this year, this eastern Kansas farmer should bet Republicans in the congressional delegation won’t help. If past performance indicates future results, it’s a sure thing.
As markets shriveled this year, Sen. Roger Marshall claimed Trump gave “Kansas farmers and ranchers access to critically important export markets.” That echoes what he said during the depths of President Trump’s first trade war debacle: “His policies are working.”
They were a catastrophe. Kansas farmers lost $1 billion in foregone exports, farm bankruptcies doubled and they triggered bailouts that cost billions.
Today’s farm trade collapse results from one of the most predictable policy failures in recent memory, a step-by-step replay of arbitrary, mercurial tariffs suffocating farm exports. It’s inexplicable those lessons are not being heeded by key policymakers: the President, the U.S. trade representative (who was deputy trade representative the first go round) and the USDA secretary (who had a White House role then).
Meanwhile, the victims of this colossal blunder are relearning a painful lesson. Their lawmakers will do nothing. They’re also ignoring what they witnessed during the first trade wear.
They support the tariffs. In March, Kansas Reps. Ron Estes, Tracey Mann and Derek Schmidt voted in favor of them, twice. It was a legislative sleight of hand, one sentence tucked into a procedural motion that stops the House from even considering legislation to repeal the tariffs. They did it again Sept. 16. In April, Sens. Marshall and Jerry Moran could have repealed the tariffs. But, they voted to keep them, ignoring escalating warnings.
Signals of an emerging crisis appeared almost immediately after of the president’s April 2 tariff announcement. It was projected in the export outlook planned for release May 29. But USDA leaders spiked the report, then excised the expert-generated analysis.
“In the past, a lot of our milo (grain sorghum) exports have gone to China, and so not having them as a trade partner right now is definitely a challenge,” Andy Hineman told the Reflector in September. That Kansas farmer and other milo growers in the state produce about half of all U.S. exports, adding about $1 billion to the Kansas economy. That contribution may not materialize this year.
A recent USDA report tells a dire story: “No exports were reported for the period ending August 31. Accumulated exports were down seventy percent from the prior year.” To paraphrase Marshall’s recent comments that “sorghum is all about the trade issue,” vanishing milo exports are all about the tariffs.
In 2024, US farmers sold more than $12 billion worth of soybeans to China. Last month, the US didn’t sell a single soybean to China, the first time in nearly a decade. Total 2025 soybean sales to China: zero. The Kansas economy is now in a recession due in large part to falling agriculture exports, says Moody’s.
Instead of sticking up for their constituents, Marshall and Mann cheer meaningless trade announcements. Marshall said the president “found a way to break through and gain access” to the Australia beef market. In reality, that market has essentially been open for years. Mann recast a Trumpism: “This is the art of the deal.”
The art of the deal? That’s not what experts say: “US beef processors will be lucky to move $1-2 million worth of beef annually into Australia, compared to the $4 billion worth of beef Australia sent to the US last year.” Meanwhile, President Trump has said the US will begin buying beef from Argentina.
The ballyhooed trade deals do not in fact lower trade barriers. They’re to-do lists. “The United Kingdom and the US plan to work constructively in an effort to enhance (and) positively support future discussions” (emphasis added) on farm trade. The European Union pretend agreement reads the same: The EU and US “intend to work together.”
While USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins was boosting these phantom deals, behind the scenes Agriculture Department officials were putting pencil to paper developing the completely predictable bailout from tariff carnage. In recent days, administration officials from the president to Rollins to key economic advisors have conceded the worst-kept secret in Washington.
Sure bet number two: another bailout is coming, double down on it.
A final wager. USDA paid $28 billion during Trump Trade War I. Will the coming bailout be over or under? Congress appropriated $10 billion in December for more emergency payments. The budget bill passed in July included $60 billion in new farm program subsidies. The cost to repeal the tariffs: zero dollars.
For farmers who think that farming (and voting) is enough gambling, maybe they should become online influencers. The administration might not be able to find time to make a deal to reopen the China market, but it did find time to salvage TikTok.
