The Supreme Court stunned political observers on Thursday in the closely watched Allen v. Milligan case, ruling that Alabama likely violated the Voting Rights Act's prohibition on racial gerrymandering when it drew a map that packs most of the state's Black voters into a single congressional district — and the decision could make it harder for Republicans to hold the House of Representatives in 2024.
The ruling, written by Chief Justice John Roberts and joined by all three liberal members of the court along with Justice Brett Kavanaugh, was a surprise to court watchers, who had expected the Court to weaken the Voting Rights Act protections and find Alabama's map permissible.
Roberts was previously involved in several decisions weakening voting rights and representation, including striking down the requirement for preclearance of election law changes for Southern states in 2013, and prohibiting federal courts from policing partisan gerrymandering in 2019.
Mark Joseph Stern, a legal analyst, called the decision "a HUGE surprise and a major voting rights victory."
The decision means that it is likely Alabama will have to redraw its congressional districts to create a second majority-Black district, pending further litigation in lower courts.
It could also potentially affect other states that face similar litigation arguing they improperly minimized Black representation in their districts, like Louisiana and South Carolina. Lower courts have both ruled those maps unconstitutional; the Supreme Court put the Louisiana decision on hold, and has agreed to review South Carolina's map.
Redrawing congressional districts in Southern states to increase Black voting power would almost certainly have the added effect of electing more Democratic representatives to these states, experts say. That would put in jeopardy the slim, five-seat majority Republicans won in the 2022 midterm elections.
