Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is pretty much the best Democrats could get in West Virginia, explained Harry Enten for CNN.com. It would take a very strong Democrat who could work for several years to talk to voters directly. But in Arizona, things are different.
"Democrats can hope for more from an Arizona Democrat. Their party has a much easier time winning in Arizona than West Virginia," wrote Enten. "Start with what happened in last year's presidential election. President Joe Biden won the state of Arizona by 0.3 points. West Virginia, unlike Arizona, is a red state. Biden lost the state by 39 points. This came after Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton lost the state by more than 40 points in 2016."
In Arizona, however, the state has been moving toward Democrats for the last several years. "Biden did 4 points better than Clinton, who in turn did 6 points better than Barack Obama in 2012," he explained.
Democrats also hold two of the five seats on the Corporation Commission, the secretary of state's office and the superintendent of public instruction. They also have five of the nine U.S. House seats.
So, for Sinema to turn so far right after being elected by Democrats in her state, doesn't make a lot of sense. She also serves as a huge contrast to Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), who used to be a Republican, before deciding to run for U.S. Senate in the GOP's era of Trump.
It might already be happening, he explained. Some of Sinema's biggest advocates in 2018 have announced that they will oppose Sinema if she doesn't turn to help the people of her state. The new Primary Sinema PAC doesn't cite a specific person to challenge the Senator.
"A recent poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based political research firm, found that just 56 percent of Arizona Democrats had favorable views of Sinema — 30 percent had unfavorable views — while 80 percent had positive views of their junior senator, Mark Kelly," NBC News reported this week.
Those numbers came before Sinema got the "Saturday Night Live" treatment where she was ridiculed for refusing to negotiate with Democrats or even reveal her demands.
"Look, as a wine-drinking, bisexual triathlete, I know what the average American wants," the SNL Sinema says. "They want to be put on hold when they call 9-1-1, they want bridges that just stop and car falls down. They want water so thick you can eat it with a fork. And I will fight for that no matter what. Unless my foot hurts, then I've got to go back to Arizona."
The idea that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was a "maverick" didn't come from the big picture of his votes. In fact, McCain voted with the GOP 90 percent of the time, wrote Enten. It was more that McCain was willing to stand with Democrats at unexpected times.
"There is one way though in which Sinema is similar to McCain: She's upsetting her party's base. By voting the way she does, Sinema may be leaving herself open to a primary challenge -- a possibility certain liberal groups are already eyeing," he wrote.
While Sinema may not fear a primary challenge, if she alienates President Joe Biden, all but one of the Senate Democrats, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, women's groups, LGBT groups and labor unions it could isolate her from those she might be forced to turn to when the elections do come.
