With Democrats the projected winner of the U.S. Senate, all eyes have shifted to the battle for the control of the House of Representatives, but it could be an ongoing question.
"The NBC News House model has just been revised. Our new estimate is that Republicans will finish with 219 seats," Steve Kornacki reported Saturday evening, noting that the model's margin of error is four seats, while that outcome would only put the GOP ahead of Democrats' 216 seats by three members.
Such a narrow margin could greatly magnify the importance of congressional vacancies, which occur when a member dies, quits, or is kicked out of Congress.
The office of the historian of Congress explains, "All states, territories, and districts require special elections to fill any vacant House seats during the first session of a Congress. During the second session of a Congress, however, procedures often vary depending on the amount of time between the vacancy and the next general election."
Such a narrow margin could make special elections critically important in 2023, the first session of the next Congress.
In 2021, there were six special elections in the first session of the 117th Congress. In 2019, there were three special elections in the 116th Congress.
There were six special elections in 2017, three in 2015 and five in 2013, although one of the victors was not sworn in until the following January.
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