<p>But Trump is a singular force who maintains a vice grip on the Republican base, and all eyes will be on the 74-year-old showman when he addresses the Conservative Political Action Conference and teases attendees about his political future.</p><p>The speech, his first post-presidential address, comes on CPAC's final day in Orlando, Florida where he is expected to be enthusiastically received at the nation's largest gathering of conservatives.</p><p>But is he still the party's uncontested leader, despite losing to Joe Biden? Or is Trump a twice-impeached has-been who left Washington in shame, banned from Twitter and accused of inciting a January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol?</p><p>While Trump has largely kept to himself at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, after spending months promoting the falsehood that the election was stolen, strategists and many lawmakers say he remains the dominant conservative political force.</p><p>"President Trump is the leader of the Republican Party," congressman Jim Jordan declared Wednesday on Twitter.</p><p>A source familiar with Trump's plans said the former president will be "talking about the future of the Republican Party" at CPAC and will criticize some of Biden's new policies. </p><p>But a Trump 2024 announcement may not come at CPAC, which starts Friday with panels on "cancel culture" and "protecting elections."</p><p>CPAC organizer Matt Schlapp, a pro-Trump activist, retweeted a reporter Wednesday citing sources saying that Trump will not announce his candidacy Sunday but will appear "warm" to the idea.</p><h1>Base 'still with Trump'</h1><p>Such posturing will likely freeze other Republican contenders in place, for now at least.</p><p>Several potential White House hopefuls -- including former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem and Senator Josh Hawley -- will address CPAC, which may make for awkward presentations to a crowd still in Trump's thrall.</p><p>A mid-February Quinnipiac poll showed three of four Republicans want Trump to play a prominent role in the party.</p><p>"I think there's a disconnect between the Washington DC Republican Party and where the base is -- and the base is still with Trump," lobbyist John Feehery, who worked in House Republican leadership for 15 years, told AFP.</p><p>Tensions over Trump intensified Wednesday at a Republican press conference. Asked whether Trump should address CPAC, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said "Yes he should."</p><p>The question then went to congresswoman Liz Cheney, the Republican conference chairwoman who voted to impeach Trump over the Capitol riot.</p><p>"That's up to CPAC," Cheney said. But "following January 6 I don't believe that he should be playing a role in the future of the party or the country."</p><p>McCarthy could not escape quickly enough: "On that high note, thank you very much!" he said, ending the conference.</p><p>The drama exposed the extraordinary faultline between establishment Republicans and pro-Trump populists.</p><p>"Whether the GOP remains an uneasy alliance of those two factions, or splits apart... depends on a number of things that haven't happened yet," said Republican political consultant Whit Ayres, president of North Star Opinion Research.</p><p>Predicting another Trump candidacy now would be "rank speculation," Ayres said, and pointed to the "mountain of financial and legal challenges" Trump faces, including his tax returns and alleged hush-money payments before the 2016 election.</p><h1>'Stay tuned'</h1><p>Feehery too is unsure whether Trump will seek the nomination, rather than remaining a kingmaker.</p><p>"I think he just wants to keep relevance, keep people talking about him," Feehery said. "Speaking at CPAC helps him achieve that objective."</p><p>But Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally, said supporting the ex-president will be crucial for their party to take back Congress in next year's midterm elections and gear up for 2024.</p><p>"If we can get behind president Trump and follow his lead we will win in 2022," Graham told Fox News. "If we argue with ourselves, we're going to lose."</p><p>Asked whether Trump runs in 2024, Graham deadpanned: "Stay tuned."</p><p>Politics professor John Pitney Jr of Claremont McKenna College is confident Trump will control the GOP into 2024 -- unless legal woes or other hurdles consume him.</p><p>"Supporters of president Trump vastly outnumber his critics within the Republican Party," Pitney said, adding conservatives may not enter the 2024 race unless Trump is out.</p><p>"Republicans understand that breaking with Trump carries a political price within the Republican Party," he said. "Most aren't willing to pay that price."</p>
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