Republicans have a decent chance of taking control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections. Even if Presidet Joe Biden remains popular, the fact that Republicans are only short a majority by 5 seats, combined with the fact that they control the redistricting process in more states than Democrats, give them a good shot.
But the GOP shouldn't expect smooth sailing if Kevin McCarthy becomes Speaker. On the contrary, noted The New York Times, Republicans assuming control of the House could tear open wounds between Trump supporters and skeptics within the party and cause more leadership turnover, as with the ousting this week of Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) as conference chair in favor of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY).
The fundamental problem, wrote Giovanni Russonello, is that many of the Republican ranking members who would take over House committees in a GOP majority are part of Sarah Chamberlain's Republican Main Street Partnership, a relatively Trump-critical faction of the party, and their elevation might trigger a new wave of Cheney-like ousters.
"Although the House Republican Conference is now led entirely by a pro-Trump team, many of the top G.O.P. lawmakers on House committees have quietly resisted his takeover of the party," reported Russonello. "'If we get back the majority, we have a lot of our members leading committees,' Ms. Chamberlain said, referring to House lawmakers who belong to the Republican Main Street Partnership and have no love lost for Mr. Trump."
"This, of course, could spell only more dissension and division ahead of the 2024 presidential election, when the party's voters will have to decide whether to nominate a Trumpist candidate — maybe even the former president himself — or a more traditional Republican figure," concluded Russonello. "For now, the house remains divided."
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