As Republicans eagerly await the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling in a pivotal Voting Rights Act case that could potentially change or eliminate the protection of racial communities of interest in redistricting, they are making plans to erase majority-Black and Hispanic districts in states they control.
However, as Politico reported on Tuesday, they face one key obstacle in this scheme: It's unlikely such a ruling could be made in time to have any impact on the 2026 midterm elections.
A key example of how this might all play out is Florida, where Gov. Ron DeSantis already eliminated key majority-minority districts to help the GOP capture 20 of the state's 28 seats in the last redistricting. He has "repeatedly asserted that if the Supreme Court rules that states cannot consider race when drawing district lines, it will 'necessitate new congressional redistricting' in the red state," per the report, specifically eyeing Black and Hispanic districts in South Florida.
However, despite an initial push to prepare for such redistricting, "there’s been little movement," the report noted. And even if the right-wing Supreme Court majority does give the GOP what it wants and allow more majority-minority districts to be dismantled, "lawmakers will face a tight timeline to get new maps passed before the midterms. If a ruling drags into the summer, when some of the highest-profile cases are often decided, it could foreclose many states from redrawing lines."
If the ruling is this delayed, some states' only options to rig maps before the midterms would be to pass laws altering the calendar, said the report: "Moving back primaries, said one top Republican strategist granted anonymity to discuss strategy, would be the best way for states to redraw in time for the midterms. But it would take a lot of strong-arming to get lawmakers to alter their own election timelines, and the strategist warned that such a scenario is not very likely."
Meanwhile, the public strategizing from the GOP over how best to dismantle these districts is already being seized on by Democratic strategists, who are warning the court not to green-light these plans.
“Many states across the South are already licking their chops to try and prepare to racially gerrymander maps as quickly as possible,” said National Democratic Redistricting Committee director John Bisognano. “It is clear that there is a consistent and dramatic need for laws to be in place to enforce the Fourteenth Amendment and ensure that the racial gerrymandering or racial discrimination at large is not permitted in this country.”
