Republicans remain overwhelming favorites to retain control of the Senate in 2026 simply by virtue of there not being many competitive seats Democrats can contest — but they are facing unexpected setbacks in both recruiting and primaries that could make the cycle a much bigger headache for them than they had expected, Politico reported on Tuesday.
The latest blow was Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) declining to run against Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff, exposing Republicans to the risk that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene could pursue the nomination and tank their chances out of the gate.
And that's just the tip of the iceberg.
"After Kemp and former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu rejected GOP recruitment efforts — and with hardline conservative Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton primarying the establishment Sen. John Cornyn — the GOP is bracing for a more turbulent cycle than once expected," said the report. "That’s not to mention other brewing challenges in Louisiana and North Carolina, where MAGA figures are threatening primaries against longtime incumbents."
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Paxton alone is kicking off a big civil war among Texas Republicans that Senate leadership is hoping President Donald Trump can quell.
"In Texas, the senior Senate GOP campaign hand said there will be a 'serious effort' to ensure Cornyn is the nominee," said the report. "The senator recently brought on former Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio to burnish his MAGA credentials, according to two people familiar with the decision. GOP senators wanted to keep Paxton out of the race, maneuvering to undercut him before his launch and urging Trump to endorse Cornyn, a close ally of leadership and former chair of the Senate’s campaign arm. It remains unclear if Trump or the White House will ask Paxton to stand down. Advisers in the White House are aware he’s a political liability — and that Texas is an expensive state to campaign in."
To complicate things even further, noted the report, "Republicans could have another unwanted primary on their hands in Michigan, where Rep. Bill Huizenga is mulling whether to join former Rep. Mike Rogers in seeking retiring Sen. Gary Peters’ seat."
Republicans are still confident their geographic advantage in the 2026 Senate map will help them carry the day. However, Georgia-based Republican strategist Jay Williams told Politico, “Never underestimate Republicans’ ability to pull defeat from the jaws of victory.”
