Here's how the New York legislature may have already won the midterms for Democrats

Democrats in the New York legislature may have gerrymandered the state following the 2020 Census thoroughly enough to shift which party picks up seats in Congress during the midterm elections.

"To be sure, New York is a solidly blue state: Joe Biden got 61 percent of the vote there in 2020. But its new congressional map would likely hand Democrats between 77 and 85 percent of New York’s congressional seats. That’s like if your friend said he’d eat only five slices of your pizza but then actually ate almost the entire pie," Five Thirty Eight elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich wrote on Thursday.

Republicans, including GOP conference chair Elise Stefanik (R-NY) have blasted the maps.

"The new map creates 20 congressional districts that lean toward Democrats and only four that lean toward Republicans. (There are also two toss-up districts.) Because there are currently eight Republicans in New York’s congressional delegation, that means this map alone could subtract four Republicans from the U.S. House in 2022!" he wrote. "That’s a big enough swing that it actually changed which party would pick up seats from redistricting in 2022."

Rakich noted Republicans were suing to block the maps in court, but said they "may not find a receptive audience in the New York judiciary: All seven judges on the state’s highest court were appointed by Democratic governors. So in all likelihood, this lawsuit is like a car on the George Washington Bridge at rush hour — going nowhere."

Read the full analysis.

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