House Republicans had a theoretical advantage heading into the government shutdown: unlike Senate Republicans, they can use their bare majority to pass messaging bills to reopen the government, making Democrats look bad and trying to stick them with the blame for the standoff.
But that has been derailed by their other key agenda of running interference for President Donald Trump over the Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking case files, political commentator Matt Yglesias noted Tuesday on X.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) wants to avoid a vote on the bipartisan discharge petition to compel the release of the files from the Justice Department, something Trump adamantly opposes despite himself, many of his subordinates, and the MAGA community at large clamoring for their release for years.
The petition, sponsored by Reps. Ro Khanna (D-CA) and Thomas Massie (R-KY), is just one vote shy of passage. That vote is already in waiting in the form of Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ), who won a special election weeks ago to replace her late father.
Since that election, however, her seat has remained vacant as Johnson has held the House closed, a move Democrats say was to avoid having to swear her in and give the discharge petition its final vote. And in doing so, he has essentially declawed House Republicans from using their power to message against Democrats in the shutdown, Yglesias noted.
"An underrated aspect of the shutdown: Republicans won't bring the House back into session because they'd have to seat Grijalva, which would put the Epstein discharge petition over the top, so neither chamber can hold votes on message bills designed to squeeze Democrats," he wrote.
Republicans also control the Senate, which theoretically could hold their own shutdown votes to embarrass Democrats. But, wrote Yglesias, they can't do that "because Democrats might say 'yes' to a GOP message bill, in which case House Republicans would be struck obstructing their own legislation to continue whatever Epstein coverup they're doing."
Democrats have vowed not to provide Republicans with the final votes they need to reopen the government until they come to the table and negotiate to extend subsidies that keep Affordable Care Act premiums stable. If those subsidies lapse, millions of Americans could see their premiums increase by at least double.
As the standoff drags on, even Trump has said he's open to a deal on the issue, but is refusing to do so until the shutdown ends.
