House Republicans are on course for obliteration in next year's midterm elections as President Donald Trump's numbers slide, said CNN data forecaster Harry Enten on Monday morning — and there are some very clear danger signs for them if you break down the data further.
"I mean, look, it's the congressional GOP. It's the House GOP," Enten told anchor John Berman. "If the House GOP is under any illusions that Donald Trump's fall in the polls won't bring them down as well, well, they are living on fantasy island."
To understand this, Enten continued, one need only look at how the parties fare on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters simply which party they would prefer to control Congress.
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"We have three polls out within the last few weeks ... they all show the Democrats up. By two points in the CNBC poll. The Fox News poll, that was on Friday, look at that, Democrats up by seven. The New York Times poll, that was out this Friday as well, Democrats by three. And keep in mind the House GOP won the popular vote back in 2024 by a little less than three percentage points. So when you see three, seven, two, averaging four, that is a tremendous shift.
"That is a shift of seven points from the November 2024 elections away from the GOP to the House Democrats."
Furthermore, he continued, the biggest driver of this has been independent voters abandoning the GOP.
"This is how you know that Trump is bringing down the House GOP," said Enten. "Look at Trump's net favorable rating in October of 2024, according to The New York Times. It was minus nine points. Look at where it is now. -30 points among independents. That's horrific. That's historically awful. Take a look at the generic ballot in October of 2024. The Democrats were ahead, but only by three, well within the margin of error. Look at where they are now up 17 points."
"There is no way on God's green earth that the Republicans can hold onto the House of Representatives if they lose independents by 17 percentage points," he added. "My goodness gracious, this is what dreams are made of for House Democrats. And it's all being driven, or at least in large part, being driven by Donald Trump's rapid drop with independents."
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