Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that "voters are shifting" as the final months of the campaign approach and Democrats prepare to host their presidential convention in Chicago — with the tide turning in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris.
According to Fortune, Harris "is up by about three percentage points nationally since she became the presumed Democratic nominee after President Biden ended his reelection bid last month. Her margins have also improved in key swing states, including Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, where Trump has just a 0.2 percentage point lead over Harris, according to the Goldman analysts. The vice president needs at least 270 electoral votes to win the election."
This comes at a time when Democratic enthusiasm on the ground has translated into massive rallies for the vice president, which has reportedly panicked Trump and led him to push conspiracy theories about her crowds being A.I.-generated.
Further boosting Democrats, the analysis found that third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are bleeding their support — but disproportionately from left-leaning voters who are coming home to support Democrats, leaving more of the right-leaning voters whom Trump needs to win. Voters are also expressing more support for Democrats down the ballot, with the generic congressional preference favoring Democratic candidates, and a slim plurality of voters in a recent poll even trusting Harris more on the economy.
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It's that last point that could be the one final vulnerability for Harris, Goldman Sachs noted.
Surprise economic instability in the month of July "could hurt her chances of being elected in November, according to the analysts," said the report. "Last week, all major indices closed down for the week after the unraveling of the yen carry trade led to big moves by traders. Weaker-than-expected jobs numbers also yielded concern as the unemployment rate rose for the third straight month to 4.3%."
Notably, though, the S&P 500 has largely made up for the losses it saw since then, and a Federal Reserve decision to cut rates later this year could reassure markets further.
