New polling from Gallup showed a “shocking” swing towards Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, leaving CNN’s data expert Harry Enten stunned Tuesday as he pored through the figures.
The new poll measures Americans’ party identification through targeted phone calls to registered voters. It found that Democrats made significant gains since the first quarter of 202 — gains so significant that it entirely eliminated Republicans’ lead heading into the 2024 election.
“Look at how much Democrats have gained on this metric: Democrats are ahead by seven points, that is a seven point movement to the left!” Enten said.
“Last year, going into the 2024 presidential election, that was the rare time in which Republicans actually held a lead in Gallup's party ID measure – that Republican lead is no more, adios amigos, eliminated! Now Democrats are ahead by seven points, at least according to Gallup.”
Analyzing historical Gallup party ID polling Enten noted that, based on where the polling stood as of Tuesday, there was “no historical precedent” for Republicans gaining any House seats in the upcoming midterm elections.
According to Gallup, party ID among voters was tied in the first quarter of 2025, but swung seven points toward Democrats as of the new poll. A year before the 2018 midterm elections , Democrats – who that election cycle gained 41 House seats – held a four-point lead in party ID, suggesting the party may gain even more seats this midterm election cycle.
“What does it matter when Democrats have a lead on party ID at this particular point in midterm cycles?” Enten said. “It looks like what we had going into the 2018 midterm cycle in which Democrats were ahead by four points; they're actually doing better at this point than they were during the 2018 cycle.”
