Republicans in Georgia got a bad break when Gov. Brian Kemp took his name out of consideration to run for Senate, eliminating possibly the strongest challenger to Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff according to political analysts.
But things could get a lot worse for them, as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) appears interested in running, wrote analyst Aaron Blake for The Washington Post.
It's already the Democrats' dream to run against her, with some figures in the party taunting the GOP over the possibility. But they shouldn't rule out the possibility they'll end up stuck with her, Blake argued.
"Greene had said this year that she would consider a Senate campaign if Kemp doesn’t run," wrote Blake. "It remains to be seen how serious her consideration will be. She has also floated a potential run for governor. There’s little downside to raising her profile by saying she’s considering it. She could be giving up a significant platform if she runs. But it’s enough to cause Republicans to not-subtly panic."
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The problem is that polling suggests she could win a primary if Kemp isn't in the race, Blake said — and polling further indicates she is one of the weakest potential candidates for the general election.
"If she did run, it’s pretty easy to see her winning the GOP primary ... and then costing the party in the general election in a key state, just like a procession of more-extreme Republicans like her have in recent years. (See: Mark Robinson, Doug Mastriano, Kari Lake, Blake Masters, etc., etc.)" he wrote. "Greene’s history of conspiracy theories — on 9/11, school shootings and QAnon, among other topics — and extreme statements and actions — things like appearing at a conference featuring white nationalists — have clearly marginalized her. It shows up in both the polls and her own election results."
Greene occupies a heavily Republican-favoring district, Blake noted, yet she managed to underperform President Donald Trump's margin by eight points, which would likely be fatal to any Senate run.
Ultimately, Republicans have only themselves to blame for her being so well-positioned, Blake concluded: "then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-California) two years ago decided to form something of an alliance with her. The play was obvious: McCarthy wanted to keep his right flank in check. It didn’t work out for him; he was ousted nine months later. And if Greene does run for Senate, the party might rue its own effort to mainstream her."
