The Democratic Party is in a better position for the 2022 midterms ahead of the traditional final stretch of the campaign that starts after Labor Day.
"Democrat Pat Ryan’s upset victory in the NY-19 special election, along with a similarly shocking close race in heavily Republican NY-23, have resulted in other major election outlets (including Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report) altering their election ratings, and our ratings are no exception," Decision Desk's Elections Daily reported Friday.
"The national climate has undeniably shifted, perhaps from a Republican wave to a so-called “ripple” or neutral environment. We regard Republicans as the unequivocal favorites to hold the House, still, but our ratings changes predominantly benefit Democrats," Elections Daily reported. "Currently, we favor Republicans in 218 seats (the absolute bare-minimum for a majority) and Democrats in 193. We have 24 seats rated in the Tossup column."
The other big forecasters had similar takes.
University of Virginia's Larry Sabato said, "there is an accumulating amount of evidence that Democrats are holding up better than expected in this midterm environment, likely in no small part because of the Dobbs decision. We now have these decent Democratic special election performances to consider, as well as House generic ballot polling that, collectively, no longer shows a Republican edge. This comes despite President Joe Biden’s poor approval rating — his numbers have been better lately, although he’s still in just the low 40s (as opposed to the high 30s)."
And the Cook Political Report said, "that sound you hear is the crash of expectations of big GOP gains in the House this fall. Democrats notched a huge victory in New York’s 19th CD last night as Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro 51% to 49% in a Hudson Valley special election both parties had invested in. That’s roughly the same margin President Biden had carried the seat by in 2020. The result shouldn’t be shocking, considering Democrats had outperformed in other recent specials in NE-01 and MN-01. But Molinaro, regarded as a pragmatic executive of blue-leaning Dutchess County, had led in multiple polls throughout the race. Ryan, the younger Ulster County executive and decorated Army veteran, prevailed after a late push to make abortion rights the centerpiece of the campaign."
During a Thursday rally in Maryland, where Biden referred to the GOP ideology as "semi-fascism," the president predicted women will "roar" on abortion during the 2022 midterms:
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