No Labels, the purportedly centrist political organization that says it has managed to gather the support it needs to be included on 2024 election ballots in four states, is misrepresenting its path to the presidency, an election analyst wrote Friday.
Despite a severe distaste for both political parties that dominate the U.S., No Labels' third-party bid is based on misrepresentations about the nature of how politics works, according to senior FiveThirtyEight elections analyst, Geoffrey Skelley.
"It’s too early to evaluate whether No Labels’s candidate could be a spoiler for the Democratic nominee, but the group’s belief that it could mount a victorious campaign rests on several misconceptions about contemporary politics," Skelley wrote on Friday. "First and foremost, the share of the electorate made up by independent moderates isn’t large enough to win a presidential election."
Secondly, he added, "despite distaste for Biden and Trump, each remains well-liked by his party, reducing the potential draw of a No Labels candidate."
"Meanwhile, the group’s aim of markedly increasing turnout over 2020’s record-high mark will require the difficult task of getting even more low-propensity voters to turn out," Skelley noted.
"Lastly, finding a candidate who could maximize No Labels’s appeal won’t be easy because there’s nobody named 'moderate independent' who embodies the varied preferences held by voters disenchanted by the idea of another Biden-Trump matchup."
