Speaking to MSNBC's Ali Velshi, NYU historian and expert on authoritarianism Ruth Ben-Ghiat explained that the main reason that Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn't caved into pressure is that he's spent decades getting away with his attacks on civilians.
Velshi asked about the kind of scorched-earth style of warfare. Many are commenting that these are the same tactics used in attacks on Grozny, Chechnya, Aleppo and Syria.
"All of these atrocities made use of chemical weapons, chlorine, sarin gas, in Syria, as well as bombing civilians and hospitals," she said of those wars. "Now, what we see as atrocities, Putin sees as a record of success. Because he has been doing this for 20 years and he has paid no big price domestically. Indeed, he's gotten a boost from the very beginning, when, as you're pointing out, he was coming into the presidency. This cemented his strongman tactics, his fame as a strongman. And he also paid no price internationally. Now, when he annexed Crimea, there were sanctions, but that was a boost of popularity for him. So, what we see as atrocities, he sees as a record of success. Things that have benefited Russia, and him, personally."
Velshi wondered how Putin has been able to convince his people to take up arms on his behalf. That has been part of his campaign of propaganda from the beginning. He first had generals tell the soldiers that they were going to the border for a training mission, only to have them find out they were going to war once they arrived. State media has refused to report the reality of what is happening on the ground, much less allow anyone who opposes Putin to speak out on their airwaves. Over 14,000 people who have protested the war in Russia have been arrested. Putin's political opponents have also been arrested or killed.
Ben-Ghiat cited many of Putin's speeches he's made attacking "the west" and the idea of western society as being morally depraved, weak and leading to the end of civilization.
"Now, that is one thing, but another thing is sending troops in and them knowing, increasingly, that he does not care about them. In fact, we talked before about if there is a prolonged war, a war of attrition, that affects Russians too," she continued. "Now, we know not only does he have no moral, or humanitarian sentiment, he also does not care about his people. So, a war of attrition is perfectly fine to him. But we know, Russian soldiers, already, are feeling a little deceived, from reports of POW statements, and the more that this goes on, it is not clear what their morale and fighting will be."
Velshi also wondered if there was any kind of off-ramp for Putin out of the war. For example, he wants land. Perhaps the Ukraine government could agree to give him a kind of land bridge to Crimea as a kind of consolation prize. But Ben-Ghiat said that she doesn't see that happening any time soon.
"It is more likely that he is stalling," she told Velshi. "He would like to save face, but he couldn't afford to come home with a not much more than he started with because, as you know Ali, he embarked on this whole thing because he was a little worried about feeling insecure about his power at home. So, if he has a humiliation, or a defeat — because look at what it has cost Russia. Russia is a pariah. The economy has tanked. You know, all of the things we know. So, if he has some kind of humiliation, it could lead him to be in a far worse position at home. Unfortunately, that is why the more the war goes on and if it goes badly for Russia, the more likely that he may be to resort to unconventional, such as chemical weapons, because he desperately needs a defeat. The irony is that Zelensky, who is in the state of siege, has a much better relationship and a much more stable position with his own people, than Putin does with his."
See the discussion below:
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