The House races are finalized, and the results reveal a historically narrow Republican majority. According to one columnist, this means the future of the GOP agenda isn't going to be as secure as they might think.
Writing for the Washington Post, Aaron Blake said, "Republicans have actually lost ground," even if it was just one seat.
This means that the Republican majority stands at 220 compared to the Democrats' 215. In the past two years, the GOP majority was at 222, with Democrats at just 213 at the start of the 2022 legislative Congress.
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Meanwhile, Donald Trump is chipping away at the lead by appointing a number of members of the U.S. House to White House jobs and Cabinet positions. Those seats will be empty while the states schedule special elections and voters decide who they want to elect.
That means the Republican majority is as "thin as 217-215 (the same as that smallest-ever 1917-19 Congress)," Blake wrote.
When Trump appointed Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) to serve as his attorney general, Gaetz ran into problems with a looming Ethics Committee report addressing scandals involving allegations of underage sex and drugs. While Gaetz denies any impropriety, he abruptly withdrew from Congress, which some say was meant to stop the report from being released.
Gaetz said that he still won't be sworn back in on Jan. 3, despite withdrawing his name from consideration at the Department of Justice.
Another Florida congressman, Republican Michael Waltz, was also among the Trump nominees. The elections for each seat will be held on April 1, just a few weeks before the end of Trump's first 100 days in office on April 30.
In New York, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) will vacate her seat to accept a Trump position, but until she resigns, no date for the special election can be made. That means even if the Florida seats are filled on April 1, if Stefanik doesn't resign by Jan. 21, 2025, the GOP will have another vacancy well into April or even May.
"There is some wiggle room here, but a 217-215 majority would effectively mean they can’t lose even one Republican vote if all Democrats vote against them," Blake said.
One illness, death in the family, or other reason for absence means Republicans have no room for error.
"In other words, buckle up," Blake closed. "Trump campaigned and has run his transition like someone who will have huge majorities. But the reality is far different."
