Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has had the ambition to be Speaker of the House since the he joined the so-called "Young Guns" of conservatives. Those dreams are quickly evaporating in the 2022 summer drought, CNN reported Sunday.
"House Republicans are starting to grow pessimistic about their chances of winning a massive majority in the midterm elections, putting some allies of GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy on edge over his future," the report explained.
Republicans are still convinced they can recapture the House in November thanks to historic gerrymandering by red states to marginalize people of color, as the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law explained. But last year, McCarthy was bragging about a 60-seat takeover in a "red wave" or "landslide" election.
Those hopes are slowly being eaten away by far-right candidates that are so outside the mainstream that "Democrats might be able to minimize" the GOP in November, CNN explained.
Size matters when it comes to the GOP's majority. McCarthy has a history of lying to his members based on whichever way the wind blows. After Jan. 6, he told a group of GOP caucus members that he blamed Donald Trump for Jan. 6 and that he'd "had it with this guy." He then went crawling back to Mar-a-Lago to beg for forgiveness from Trump.
Given this, there could be a debate within the GOP where further right members takeover, or the party's moderates make a deal with the Democrats. Now those numbers are looking closer to less than half what they thought they'd get.
"I expect a narrow majority for the GOP that may not be all that much greater than what (Nancy) Pelosi has today," said retiring Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI). "Will be very hard to have any sense of a governing majority."
"The fears of a slimmer than expected majority have grown in recent weeks, as Republicans have watched their lead on the generic congressional ballot evaporate, the enthusiasm gap between the two parties narrow and Democrats win some recent special elections and outperform President Joe Biden's margins from 2020," CNN explained.
"People say, well, the generic ballot has been shifting. Well, I'll ask you this question: What was the generic ballot in the last election?" McCarthy clamored to explain to reporters before leaving for the August recess. "I don't know what the generic ballot is going to be. ... I know it's kind of baked in with what the issues are."
Republicans have adopted campaign issues like complaining about high gas prices and inflation. The problem is that inflation is slowly easing and the ridiculously low unemployment rate could save the U.S. from a recession. Meanwhile, gas prices have come down significantly. It means that Republicans are going to pivot right before the election or hang their hopes on outdated policy issues.
Meanwhile, Democrats have been infuriated by the Supreme Court's decision to eliminate Roe v. Wade, and the horrific stories that have surfaced afterward are likely to get even worse before the election. The anger has resulted in an increase in voter registration of women in several states, which might help give Dems the edge.
"We are losing ground because of it," a GOP lawmaker told CNN but wanted to remain anonymous. "Roe caught Republicans off guard and we haven't used it to paint the left as extreme nor shown any sort of compassion on the issue."
"Republicans want to say, 'inflation,' as if that solves all our problems. It doesn't," the member also said.