'Political life or death': Analyst warns GOP at risk as Trump flip flops on core principle
FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson shake hands during a House Republican members conference meeting in Trump National Doral resort, in Miami, Florida, U.S. January 27, 2025. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo

Punchbowl News reporter Jake Sherman is hearing from members of Congress that President Donald Trump's willingness to raise taxes on the super wealthy is causing a stink on Capitol Hill.

Speaking to MSNBC's Katie Tur on Friday, Sherman mentioned a Trump post on Truth Social in which he said that Republicans "probably should not" raise taxes — "but I’m OK if they do!!!"

"You said they need everybody, effectively," he said, referencing an earlier comment from Tur stating that the House GOP needs a united front on tax raises if they are to pass the budget.

"And I think that's going to be difficult. Do I think it's impossible? No, I don't think it's impossible. [Speaker] Mike Johnson (R-LA) doesn't want to do this. Sen. John Thune (R-SD) doesn't want to do this. Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) doesn't want to do this. He's the chair of the tax-writing committee in the Senate. Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) could probably talk his way into doing this. He's a lot, a lot more Trumpy than the other aforementioned folks."

As for the politics, Sherman said that raising taxes would remove a key talking point for Democrats that Trump is paying for tax cuts for the wealthy with cuts to Medicaid.

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That said, it would also "be flying in the face of decades and decades of Republican orthodoxy on taxes," Sherman added. The claim from the GOP is those rich people "create jobs for the middle class."

Trump's tax bill, passed in 2017, will expire at the end of 2025, and among the things included in it were State and local tax deductions, or the "SALT." That provision would also expire at the end of the year.

Despite debate about cuts to Medicaid, Sherman called the "SALT" tax the "thorniest" issue on Capitol Hill.

"Why? Because at the beginning of 2026, Jan. 1st, 2026, there is no SALT cap you can deduct, anywhere, you can deduct the totality of your state and local taxes against your federal tax bill," said Sherman. "So, right now, the deduction cap is $10,000. The proposal from the Ways and Means [Committee] was to bring it to $30,000. Jan. 1, 2026, it's unlimited."

Sherman said that such a cut "blows a huge hole in the budget." At the same time, he said that for many lawmakers, like New York Republican Reps. Mike Lawler, Nick Lalota and Andrew Garbarino, who "did this in 2017 and have been running on getting rid of this cap for eight years."

"I wouldn't be surprised to see people's constituents punish them if they put another suboptimal SALT cap out there. This is a matter of political life or death for these folks," said Sherman.

See the clip below or at the link here.


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