With House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) bowing out of the contest for House speaker just a day after the Republican conference nominated him and the House still paralyzed following Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) being ousted, Republicans are in chaos and trying to figure out a path to a new speaker.
All eyes are on House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-OH), who was initially a candidate and had the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, but he still faces the issue that a number of more vulnerable Republicans don't want to back a strident firebrand.
If Jordan can't get the vote, the question remains: how does the conflict end? Politico's Ryan Lizza broke down four less likely scenarios – and what would have to happen for them to become reality.
The first idea is that former President Donald Trump, who toyed with the idea of running for speaker before endorsing Jordan, could throw his hat in the ring and get elected on an interim basis — something Rep. Troy Nehls (R-TX) has been pushing in particular. The Constitution doesn't require a speaker be a sitting member of the House; on the other hand, House rules prohibit someone with major criminal indictments from holding a House leadership role.
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The second idea is for McCarthy to be reinstated, as a small handful of representatives like Rep. Tom McClintock (R-CA) are advocating in a new open letter. The immediate problem with this is that McCarthy would have to win over at least four of the eight Republicans who voted to oust him in the first place, and there is no indication he can do that — especially when his original election took multiple ballots, the first time in a century this had happened.
The third idea is that a small handful of more vulnerable House Republicans could cut a deal with Democrats to nominate a consensus speaker in return for a bipartisan governing arrangement. But there is currently no indication that any Republicans are currently desperate enough to sign on to such a plan, which would make any Republican who agrees to it a target for primaries.
The fourth idea is to simply change House rules to give extra powers to the current acting speaker, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC), effectively making him speaker without a formal vote. Rep. Dave Joyce (R-OH) has been a key proponent of this idea. The issue is that already some of the Republicans who ousted McCarthy in the first place, including ringleader Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), are against this idea.
