Senate Republicans are urgently seeking nearly $9 million to defend three states President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024, a request that would be almost unthinkable in a stronger election year for the party.
A memo obtained by Axios from the National Republican Senatorial Committee outlines specific fundraising targets: $1.2 million for Alaska, $4.2 million for Iowa, and $3.5 million for Ohio.
"We need $8.9 million in additional hard dollars to close the media gap and sustain that progress through Election Day," the memo states.
In recent polling, Democrat Mary Peltola holds a two-point edge over Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, while Iowa's race between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek sits within a single point. Ohio looks even shakier, with former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading GOP Sen. Jon Husted by four points in polling averages.
To stretch dollars further, the NRSC has leaned on a Supreme Court ruling allowing closer coordination with individual campaigns, letting the party buy ad time at lower rates. NRSC Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) touted the tactic at a closed-door lunch this week, showing colleagues data on how it's helped Republicans keep pace with Democrats' stronger grassroots fundraising numbers.
The broader map isn't offering much comfort. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted several competitive Senate races toward Democrats this week, including Georgia, Kansas, South Carolina, and Michigan. Democrats currently have credible shots in seven Republican-held seats, and only need to flip four to reclaim the majority next year.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), for his part, is encouraging candidates to distance themselves from him or even Trump if that's what their individual races require, saying, "I'm very realistic about there are political headwinds for us, and so you have to navigate that."
Democrats aren't celebrating just yet. Party insiders are privately raising alarms that Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed is getting overwhelmed by outside GOP super PAC spending. Republicans, meanwhile, see genuine reason for optimism in New Hampshire, where polls have shown a close race, and Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) remains competitive or leading in multiple polls.
