Six months into Donald Trump's second presidency, a leading Republican pollster is sounding the alarm that the twice-impeached former president may have already torpedoed his party's chances in the upcoming midterm elections.
Frank Luntz, a prominent GOP messaging expert and pollster, delivered a stark warning during a Monday appearance on CNN, declaring that Trump's political "honeymoon" period has officially expired — and the outlook for Republicans is grim.
Trump’s main problem, he said, was that he’s worked too hard to keep his MAGA base happy.
"A president should be trying to reach out to more than just 50%, should be trying to unite the country," Luntz told CNN host Brianna Keilar, taking a barely veiled swipe at Trump's narrow electoral victory.
The pollster didn't mince words about Trump's strategic failures, arguing that the president's laser focus on his MAGA base is alienating crucial swing voters and independents.
"If you look at the issues in this legislation, you go issue by issue and you put it plainly to the public, a lot of them have majority support. But the legislation overall doesn't, because in his communication, he's focused on his base and he's doing a great job there. But that's not all of America," Luntz said.
"And I, as a pollster, have to see 100% of the country, not just the 49.9% who voted for him."
Keilar pressed Luntz on troubling polling data, citing a recent CNN/SSRS poll showing Trump underwater even on immigration — supposedly his strongest political issue. The data revealed a dramatic shift in public opinion: while only 45% of respondents said Trump had "gone too far" on deportations in February, that number spiked to 52% in April and 55% in July.
Luntz acknowledged Trump's success with his core supporters but warned it's coming at a devastating political cost.
"This is his goal. This is his objective, to reach out to the people who voted for him, to say, 'you made the right choice. I kept my promises. I kept my word.' And he's succeeding in that," Luntz said. "But over the last three months, it's been much more polarizing, much more overt and some of the rhetoric has been really strong. And that turns off the people in the center."
The GOP strategist added, "He is succeeding in reaching his people, but he is failing in unifying the country and bringing everyone on board."
"Over the next six months, when Labor Day kicks in, then they're going to start to make decisions that will affect where they vote in 2026," Luntz warned, suggesting Trump's divisive approach could become the GOP's biggest liability.
"What is essential is that we find some sort of common ground. So on issues that are so important — Medicaid, taxes, budgets, immigration — we can have a consensus so we can move forward as a country rather than moving forward as a political party or an entity," Luntz said.
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