The House Select Committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on Congress and the attempt to overthrow the 2020 election referred Donald trump for criminal prosecution to the Justice Department on Monday. But according to Trump, he's still winning.
Writing for the Washington Post, Aaron Blake couldn't help but ridicule the claim that Trump was "stronger" because of the charges. Taking to his personal social media site, Trump released a statement Monday evening saying that the criminal referrals made him stronger. He then repeated the false claim that he deployed 20,000 troops that day. There was no order, the Associated Press fact-checked.
Trump then said that he couldn't be prosecuted for his role in Jan. 6 because he was impeached and that was a "prosecution." It wasn't. Legislative procedures don't count as judicial trials. It's unknown if Trump's lawyers will try that as a strategy in court, however.
"Setting aside the statement’s dude-who-quotes-Nietzsche vibe, the former president raises an interesting point," wrote Blake. "He’s made a political career out of parlaying criticism into support, casting himself as the eternal target of devious, desperate hubs of power. Was it true, then, that the House select committee’s investigation actually bolstered his standing among Republicans or Americans more broadly?"
At the same time, Trump has enjoyed a years-long effort convincing his supporters that even if he's losing, he's winning.
Blake measured Trump's claims that he's only made stronger by the attacks by looking at YouGov polls that are typically posted each week.
"We can start with two key points from 2021. The first was the vote to instantiate the select committee in early July. Within three weeks of that vote — before the committee conducted any hearings, obviously — Trump’s favorability did, in fact, tick upward. Then, later that month, the committee held its first hearing, featuring members of law enforcement. The effect on Trump’s favorability was negligible," he observed.
When the committee began holding public hearings over the summer belief in Trump cratered.
"There’s no indication that he’s viewed more positively now than he was before the committee was formed," said Blake. "There’s no indication, either, that elevating how he contributed to the events of Jan. 6, 2021, helped strengthen his position with his base."
