President Donald Trump has reached a critical juncture, writes geopolitical analyst and expert Trista Parsi, one that could result in either some de-escalation in the Middle East or an unprecedented disruption to global trade that could send oil prices to “well above $200 per barrel.”
Parsi’s analysis, detailed in a report published on his Substack Sunday night, comes after Iran and Israel exchanged strikes earlier that same day. On Monday, Trump publicly pleaded with Israel and Iran to stop fighting as his administration continues working toward a negotiated settlement with Tehran, though both nations have frequently defied the president’s wishes.
As such, Parsi argued, “the most likely scenario” in the days or weeks ahead is that Israel and Iran will continue to exchange fire. The “key question” then becomes, Parsi wrote, “whether Trump will eventually enter the conflict – or be pulled into it.”
“The Iranians appear prepared for either outcome,” Parsi wrote. “If Trump re-enters the war, Tehran may employ options it withheld during the previous conflict, including disrupting Red Sea shipping and targeting GCC oil infrastructure in an effort to drive oil prices well above $200 per barrel. If Trump stays out, such horizontal escalation may be deemed unnecessary.”
As of Monday, the price per barrel of oil sits at just over $97, a dramatic increase from the $72 seen one day before Trump launched Operation Epic Fury. Trump’s favorability has suffered as a result, with the average cost per gallon of gas reaching $4.24 last week, up significantly from the $2.98 recorded prior to the war.
