President Donald Trump's string of Republican primary victories may actually be a paradoxical sign of weakness rather than strength, with a leading political analyst warning that Trump’s standing appears to be "deteriorating."
And the numbers back it up.
David Graham, writing in The Atlantic, argued this week that while Trump successfully ousted Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and helped knock out Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), the same tactics that cement his grip on the MAGA base are quietly destroying his standing with the broader public.
"Trump’s hold on the MAGA base is still powerful, but the same actions that help him maintain it also help erode his standing with the broader public—and threaten to lead Republicans to defeat in November’s midterm elections," Graham wrote.
A New York Times/Siena poll released this week put Trump's approval rating at just 37 percent — his lowest ever in that survey and a four-point drop since January. A Reuters/Ipsos poll has him even lower, at 35 percent — a whopping 12 points below where he began his second term.
Graham notes that primary voters in ruby-red Indiana, Louisiana and Kentucky — states Trump won by 19, 22 and 31 points respectively — are not representative of the general electorate that will decide November's midterms.
"MAGA isn’t collapsing, and the base remains devoted, but it is shrinking. Trump’s sinking numbers may not matter as much to him, because he won’t face voters again, but they matter a great deal to other Republican officeholders," Graham warned.
Meanwhile, Sen. Bill Cassidy, in his first act after losing his primary, immediately bucked Trump with a procedural vote to advance a resolution ending the Iran war, a sign that some Republicans are already calculating the post-Trump political landscape.
