A treaty between Russia and the U.S. could expire shortly because of a standstill over country membership.
An ex-Pentagon official said the potential expiry is a frustrating one, and it appears Donald Trump is caught up in a detail that, to the former official, makes little difference. Kingston Reiff warned the new START deal, which will expire on February 5, had offered valuable insight into what Russia had been doing with its military.
He wrote, "So, my net assessment is the treaty reduced uncertainty about Russian strategic nuclear forces and provided us with greater confidence in our own nuclear plans and capabilities."
But Reiff has since suggested the deal may lapse because Trump wants to include China in the agreement, something which has puzzled the former Pentagon worker. He wrote, "It was never clear to me why we should jettison all limits on Russian strategic forces because New START wasn’t a panacea that captured all nuclear weapons — which of course it was never intended to be.
"Same goes for the argument the treaty didn’t include China. During the treaty’s 15-year existence, the limits have been sufficient to meet U.S. deterrence objectives against both Russia and China. (Whether this remains the case is a topic of significant debate.)
"In the end, factors outside the scope of the treaty ultimately became too much for it to overcome. These included the onset of the COVID pandemic in early 2020, which put the treaty inspections on ice, and Russia’s unconscionable invasion of Ukraine.
"Since New START's entry into force, there has been no real progress on further arms control measures. Moscow and Beijing deserve most of the blame for this. Charting a course to the next chapter will not be easy, but remains a necessary pursuit."
Democratic Party representatives are equally concerned, with John Garamendi (CA) suggesting the deal must not collapse. He told Politico, "If we allow New START to lapse without a replacement or an extension, we will be entering a new terrifying world we haven’t seen in decades: a world without limits on the nuclear arsenals of the two largest nuclear powers."
