The early optimism surrounding President Donald Trump's economic policies has faded and now odds are surging in online betting markets that there will be a recession this year.
Bettors on online market Kalshi as of this writing are projecting a 42 percent chance of recession this year, which is a surge of 12 percentage points in just the last two days, as bettors only had odds of a recession at 30 percent to start the month.
The story is the same at Polymarket, where odds of a recession this year have surged to 39 percent as of this writing, a nine percentage point increase from two days ago.
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A large combination of Trump policies, including the widespread slashing of government workers and steep international tariffs, as well as external factors such as the spread of bird flu, have caused downgrades in economic forecasts and have sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging by more than 1,400 points since the start of trading on Monday.
