President Donald Trump will deliver an address to Congress on Tuesday evening at the same time that economists are predicting his economic moves are making it more likely that the U.S. is headed toward a recession.
“Simulations have been done on the full tariffs against China, Canada and Mexico and, if you believe them, we’ll be in recession in nine to 12 months,” Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust, told MarketWatch.
Trump announced on Monday that he was doubling his 10 percent tariffs on China while also implementing his long-threatened 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Tariffs on agricultural products will begin on April 2.
Washington Post economics columnist Heather Long wrote on X, "Trump is steering the economy toward a recession with these massive tariffs and swift government cuts. Stocks are selling off. Consumers are fearful and pulling back on spending. The Nasdaq is teetering near correction. And Trump just broke our BFF relationship with Canada for no good reason. This is a recipe for much slower growth, fewer jobs and higher prices."
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Author and columnist John Ganz predicted that pro-Trump propaganda will get a big test in the coming months.
"We are going to see if modern techniques of propaganda can convince a significant amount of the public that a recession is simultaneously not happening and actually desirable," he wrote on X.
"On one theory, the election was supposedly lost through the failure of messaging to convince people that their material lives were fine when they weren't, so it's interesting that the next administration would just attempt to run the same play with more yelling," he added.
Democrat Carlos Turnbull agreed, pointing out, "We’re about 180 days away from MAGA influencers explaining how a recession and unemployment is actually good for our country."
Lawyer John Collins chimed in with agreement, predicting it'll be a few months before Republicans claim a "recession is good actually."
The Liberal Caucus in the Libertarian Party posted a photo of the state-media personality from North Korea. "Dear Leader is creating a recession to make America great again," the group quipped.
Political analyst Cliston Brown has a different prediction about the future of U.S. elections: "2026: Voters, upset by the Trump recession, vote blue in the midterms. 2028: Angry at the economic collapse, voters give Democrats the White House and Congress and swear they’ll never vote GOP again. 2030: Voters put Republicans back in charge in Congress. Wash, rinse, repeat."
"This, if you’re wondering, is why Republicans never course-correct," he continued. "They don’t have to. They pull the same shit every time, voters punish them for a midterm and maybe the next presidential election. Then, like an amnesiac, they hand the keys right back to them two years later."
"I remember in 2008, the Democrats won sweeping victories. The Bush economy was a mess, and voters swore they’d never vote Republican again. Two years later, they handed the House right back to the GOP. 'Well, they learned their lesson,' the voters said," he added.
