Former President Donald Trump could be heading for a much worse performance in November than his poll numbers suggest if, as most experts suspect, he continues winning primaries and takes the GOP nomination again, Republican focus grouper Sarah Longwell told MSNBC's Chris Hayes on Wednesday's edition of "All In."
There are two main reasons why Trump is facing a huge hidden liability, she argued — and both have to do with the fact that voters aren't yet truly processing what a Trump rematch actually means.
"My hypothesis here, and I think there's a lot of evidence for it, is that as soon as voters are forced to start thinking about Donald Trump again, they remember all the reasons they dislike him in the first place," said Hayes. "I'm curious, that's a piping hot take from yours truly. I'm curious what you make of it."
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"Not only could I not agree with it more, but it is something that I've been saying for a while now when I talk about the way that swing voters seem to be sort of processing Donald Trump and Joe Biden," said Longwell. "The first thing is that they are not yet, not yet grasped the fact that it is going to be a Trump-Biden rematch. Like, that is just starting to occur to them. The other thing is that right now, because Biden is still president, voters know what they're annoyed about with Joe Biden. If they're annoyed about the economy, they blame Joe Biden. If they're annoyed about chaos abroad, they're mad at Joe Biden. They have forgotten what they hate about Donald Trump."
"I think that this is the White House strategy," Longwell continued. "They want a contrast picture, because they know when they get it — and I have talked to swing voters in focus groups for five years, through multiple cycles, and Donald Trump and candidates like him are repellent to college-educated suburban swing voters, as well as even non-college working-class voters who just don't like the chaos."
"There is a swing-voting contingent that — I have personally, my theory, and my piping hot take — is going to grow from where we were in 2020, going into 2024," she added. "In large part because when I listen to voters, there are plenty of people who voted for Trump twice and say never again. Usually it's because of January 6th. Sometimes it's because of abortion. But there have been plenty of people who have held their nose twice, and they don't want this guy back. It is a visceral feeling of not wanting him back."
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