President Donald Trump's agenda could have devastating consequences for one specific group: Republicans in Virginia.
According to Politico's Ally Mutnick, the off-cycle races in Virginia the year after a presidential contest, which include the election for governor, "are often a bellwether for the national mood a year before the midterms. But they are poised to take on even more significance this November because so many government employees and contractors who live in Northern Virginia are experiencing firsthand the impact of the Trump administration’s attempt to shrink the federal bureaucracy."
Trump's first month has been defined by his efforts to tear down the civil service, suspending thousands of employees, freezing federal grants, and giving his associate and billionaire benefactor Elon Musk access to critical information technology. Federal judges have attempted to rein in these drastic actions, but they've already had a broad effect and Trump has flirted with ignoring the rulings, setting up a much broader constitutional fight.
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Del. Dan Helmer, who runs campaign operations for Democrats in the Virginia House of Delegates, told Politico, “Of course it’s going to have an impact on the elections of Virginia, because we are seeing put into motion the potential destruction of massive amounts of our economy and of the very work that people have dedicated their lives to on behalf of our country.”
Virginia, situated right next to Washington, D.C., has one of the highest concentrations of federal employees of any U.S. state.
Democrats in Virginia lost their trifecta in 2021 with the election of Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin to the governor's mansion. They managed to regain control of the legislature two years later. Governors in Virginia are ineligible to run for a consecutive term, so these elections are always open contests. Additionally, Democrats hope to increase their majority in the House of Delegates, which is presently extremely narrow.
